Sam Darnold Continues His Ascent

The Minnesota Vikings turned what had been tight recreation towards the Atlanta Falcons into an eventual blowout, 42-21, largely due to the efficiency of quarterback Sam Darnold.

It was arguably the perfect efficiency of Darnold’s profession, going 22/28 for 347 yards, 5 TDS, no turnovers, a 157.9 passer score and an 84.2 QBR. Yards, TDs, passer score, and QBR have been all season highs. The primary three stats have been additionally profession highs. He additionally set a Vikings season report for 100+ passer score video games with 11, which additionally leads the league.

Darnold was capable of rack up all these stats on a day that the Vikings offense struggled with cross safety. Darnold was beneath stress on a lot of his drop backs, which contributed to some stalled drives on account of sacks, however managed to navigate collapsing pockets to increase performs and switch them into explosive ones.

Darnold Now High Ten in Most Main Quarterback Metrics for the Season

From passer score (108.1 – third) to total PFF grade (86.4 – sixth) to ANY/A (7.39 – ninth) to CPOE (6.2% – 2nd) to EPA/dropback (+0.07 – eleventh) to CPOE+EPA composite (0.152 – seventh) Darnold is now prime ten in most main quarterback metrics and some different field rating stats like passing yards and touchdowns. He’s additionally tied for second in recreation profitable drives with 4 and is the one quarterback within the league with 11 video games with a passer score above 100.

And Darnold has completed all this not as a game-manager fashion quarterback, which has by no means been his fashion, however as an aggressive, big-game hunter in search of explosive performs downfield. He’s tied with Josh Allen for the quantity and share of PFF’s Large-Time Throws (BTT) and has the third longest common depth of goal (ADoT) at 9.5 yards. Much more spectacular is his adjusted completion share of 79.2%, which is tied for fourth regardless of having an ADoT not less than a yard longer than another quarterback within the prime ten in that metric.

Darnold has the third highest PFF grade when beneath stress, and the best passer score. He has by far the best passer score within the league when blitzed (143.0) and the second highest PFF grade. He’s been clutch all season when the Vikings wanted it and is taking part in a few of greatest soccer now in December because the Vikings prepare for the postseason.

And should you included a 90-10% win likelihood rubbish time filter, Darnold has been probably the most environment friendly quarterback within the league all season:

Darnold’s Efficiency Might Be Altering the Vikings’ Calculus

All indicators have been pointing to the Vikings shifting on from Darnold after the season, with J.J. McCarthy ready within the wings and the signing of Daniel Jones to again him up subsequent season. However sooner or later, if Darnold is realizing all of the objectives the Vikings have for an unproven J.J. McCarthy sooner or later, the Vikings may resolve that the longer term is now and Darnold is their man.

At a minimal they might wish to hedge their bets on McCarthy being their QBOTF for one more season and develop him additional earlier than deciding to maneuver on from Darnold. The Vikings have an estimated $78.5 million in cap area in 2025, so they might afford Darnold for one more season and nonetheless add another free brokers.

McCarthy hasn’t practiced since his knee damage, so whereas he’s participated in quarterback room conferences and meets frequently with Kevin O’Connell, and has even completed some digital actuality coaching, he hasn’t had any on-field growth since mid-August. Kevin O’Connell mentioned in the present day that McCarthy might start to do some on-field follow shortly as he turns into wholesome sufficient to take action in his rehab, however that’s more likely to be restricted.

If Darnold can take the Vikings deep into the playoffs- convention championship or Tremendous Bowl- his worth is more likely to skyrocket, notably as it is a weak quarterback draft class. That has implications for his future contract worth and the way a lot a workforce could also be keen to pay for Darnold’s providers.

All the above factors more and more to a franchise tag or transition tag state of affairs for the Vikings and Darnold following the postseason. The Vikings are unlikely from a wage cap perspective to signal Darnold to a long-term deal at a market worth that might eclipse $50 million/12 months, which is unaffordable given the opposite massive contracts on the books, however they might simply resolve to tag Darnold which doesn’t require any negotiations.

Franchise and Transition Tag Choices

There are two franchise tag choices: unique and non-exclusive. An unique franchise tag signifies that Darnold shall be on the Vikings’ 2025 roster at an estimated $41 million on a one-year deal, plain and easy. Nevertheless, the Vikings may nonetheless entertain commerce affords for Darnold beneath this feature.

A non-exclusive franchise tag means different groups might put ahead supply sheets for Darnold, which the Vikings can select to match or obtain two first-round draft picks as compensation in the event that they don’t. If the Vikings don’t obtain any affords, he’ll stay on the Vikings’ roster at $41 million, similar to the unique franchise tag possibility. The Ravens took this strategy with Lamar Jackson however didn’t obtain any affords as a result of the remainder of the league believed the Ravens would match any supply to maintain their a number of league MVP, which might make placing ahead any supply sheet a waste of time that may tie up their wage cap throughout a busy time of free company.

With the Vikings, nonetheless, having J.J. McCarthy ready within the wings, and presumably Daniel Jones too, the remainder of the league might even see the Vikings as keen to half with Darnold for the fitting compensation, which might make affords extra doubtless than was the case with Lamar Jackson and the Ravens.

The Vikings may additionally Transition Tag Darnold, which may be completed for an estimated $36 million wage on a one-year deal but in addition permits different groups to make affords for Darnold. The Vikings may select to match any supply however wouldn’t obtain any compensation in the event that they selected not to take action.

How a lot different groups are keen to pay Darnold, and what they might be keen to pay in draft capital as properly, will doubtless be decided by how far Darnold takes the Vikings into the postseason and the way properly he performs.

For the Vikings, there are two issues and situations they might must be comfy with in deciding to tag Darnold.

First, they might must be comfy retaining Darnold for one more season on the franchise or transition tag wage in the event that they tagged him and didn’t get any affords.

Secondly, if Darnold takes the Vikings to the Tremendous Bowl and so they resolve on both franchise tag possibility and obtain a proposal they’ll’t refuse, they must be comfy that J.J. McCarthy is each their QBOTF and a greater one than Darnold, all issues thought-about, for the 2025 season and past. Or that Daniel Jones or another quarterback may fill in and supply Darnold-like efficiency.

Backside Line

Sam Darnold’s continued ascent this season makes it more and more difficult- and unwise- for the Vikings to easily let him go after the postseason. To the extent that Darnold will increase his worth by his efficiency for the rest of the common season and within the postseason, the Vikings would at a minimal be foregoing invaluable draft capital by letting him go with out tagging him. They might virtually actually get a backside third spherical compensatory choose when Darnold indicators with one other workforce, however groups shall be keen to pay much more for a prime ten quarterback that delivers within the postseason.

Secondly, the Vikings might desire a extra prolonged have a look at McCarthy, or extra time for him to develop, earlier than deciding to half methods with Darnold. The Vikings have seen him in follow working with the second and third string models and in a grand whole of 1 preseason recreation. Is that sufficient to make sure he can carry out to Darnold’s degree? Which quarterback provides them the perfect likelihood to win subsequent season? Would Darnold be definitely worth the price ticket?

Kevin O’Connell stands out as the quarterback whisperer however deciding to let Darnold go solely to find McCarthy isn’t pretty much as good or sturdy can be seen as a essential mistake. No person will care about wage cap issues in letting Darnold go, or draft compensation, if McCarthy seems to not be the man. This a lot is for certain.

Ballot
Which is the most suitable choice for the Vikings?

11%

Let Darnold go, anticipating a 2026 third-round compensatory choose, save $36-$41 million in cap area in 2025 in comparison with tagging Darnold, and begin McCarthy subsequent season

(61 votes)

28%

Tag Darnold, anticipating to commerce him for greater than a 2026 third-round compensatory choose with the danger no affords are made, and begin McCarthy subsequent season

(146 votes)

52%

Tag Darnold and begin him subsequent season for $36-$41 million, let McCarthy develop one other 12 months, and revisit quarterback choices once more on the finish of subsequent season

(272 votes)

7%

Signal Darnold long-term, commerce McCarthy

(37 votes)

516 votes whole

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