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The Numbers Game: England out to book last-16 spot at Euro 2024

England know that the last 16 of Euro 2024 is within touching distance as they head into a reunion with Denmark.

The Three Lions beat the Danes in the semi-finals at Euro 2020, coming from behind to win 2-1 after extra time.

Harry Kane was England’s hero as he converted a penalty winner, though spot-kicks would of course go on to prove to be their downfall in the final against Italy.

There is less on the line when England face Denmark again on Thursday, though Gareth Southgate’s team will progress to the knockout stage should they win.

Here, we use Opta data to preview the Group C clash.

Talking of fixtures… Denmark next up for England! #ThreeLions | @NuffieldHealth pic.twitter.com/R7sQWwLwQ9

— England (@England) June 18, 2024

What’s expected?

England are forecasted to win this one, with the Opta supercomputer handing them a 54.5 per cent chance of getting the job done in Frankfurt.

Denmark are sure to be no pushovers, though, and have a 20.6 per cent win likelihood, with the draw threat at 25 per cent.

This will be the fourth encounter between Denmark and England at a major tournament. Three of those will have come at the Euros, and one at the 2002 World Cup.

Denmark won none of the previous three meetings (D1 L2), scoring only one goal in the process, Mikkel Damsgaard’s free-kick in the semi-final of Euro 2020.

There have only been five goals scored in the last four meetings between Denmark (two) and England (three) in all competitions.

Meanwhile, the Three Lions only had 12 touches in Serbia’s box in their 1-0 win on MD1, their lowest total of touches in the opposition box in a European Championship game since 2012 against Ukraine (als

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