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FAB 1. Don’t Let The 2025 Collapse Idiot You, Bucs Nonetheless The Workforce To Beat In NFC South
Heading into the 2026 season, are the Bucs nearer to the crew that began off sizzling with a 6-2 document heading into the bye week? Or are they nearer to the Tampa Bay crew that collapsed down the stretch with a 2-7 document following the bye, ending with a disappointing 8-9 document and dropping the division to Carolina?
That’s the large query for this crew coming off a story of two distinctly totally different halves from a yr in the past the place the Bucs’ incapability to remain wholesome performed an enormous position in a massively underachieving season.
I may see the Bucs ending wherever from 8-9 to 10-7 this yr, however I’m going to err on the aspect of a bounce-back season – full with a return to double-digit wins and as soon as once more ruling the NFC South. The largest cause for my optimism is Tampa Bay’s roster.
When wholesome, the Bucs are nonetheless the very best crew within the division on paper. And a yr after the Panthers, Bucs and Falcons all completed with 8-9 information, I consider the NFC South will as soon as once more be a three-team race. Besides I’ve Atlanta because the cellar dwellers within the division with New Orleans on the rise this yr and competing with Tampa Bay and Carolina for the NFC South crown.
Bucs WR Emeka Egbuka – Photograph by: Jeffrey Jones/PR
Let’s begin with the Bucs, who went 1-1 with each crew within the division final yr. You can make a case that Tampa Bay has the very best and most skilled quarterback within the NFC South in Baker Mayfield. And he has the posh of enjoying behind the very best offensive line within the division led by All-Professional Tristan Wirfs and a pair of gamers who may have Professional Bowls of their future in Cody Mauch and Luke Goedeke.
It’s not a stretch to say that the Bucs have essentially the most gifted and deepest broad receiver corps with Chris Godwin Jr., Emeka Egbuka, Jalen McMillan, Tez Johnson and rookie Ted Hurst. And from RB1 to RB3 with Bucky Irving, Kenneth Gainwell and Sean Tucker, they could have the very best total operating again room – with Falcons Professional Bowler Bijan Robinson truly being the very best again within the division.
Tight finish could be the one place on offense the place Tampa Bay doesn’t have the general edge.
Defensively, good luck operating on the Bucs this yr with an improved entrance seven that options newcomers A’Shawn Robinson and first-round decide Rueben Bain Jr. lining up alongside Vita Vea, Calijah Kancey and Yaya Diaby. But relating to cross rush, the Falcons have the clear edge, as Jeff Ulbrich’s protection recorded 57 sacks final yr. Nonetheless, 20.5 of these sacks departed Atlanta as a number of defensive gamers left in free company, and what number of video games will main sacker James Pearce Jr. miss after getting arrested this offseason?
The Bucs’ cross rush ought to be higher this yr with Bain, Al-Quadin Muhammad and David Walker serving to Diaby on the sting, however simply how a lot stays to be seen.
Bucs head coach Todd Bowles and OLB YaYa Diaby – Photograph by: Cliff Welch/PR
I believe Tampa Bay improved its inside linebacker place with Alex Anzalone, Christian Rozeboom and Josiah Trotter – though time will inform. Nonetheless, New Orleans seemingly has the highest inside linebacker duo with Kaden Ellis and Pete Werner, with Carolina additionally within the combine with prized free agent Devin Lloyd and Trevin Wallace.
The Bucs have some expertise at cornerback, nevertheless it hasn’t been absolutely realized but. But the division doesn’t actually have one standout cornerback group. Atlanta’s A.J. Terrell and Carolina’s Jaycee Horn are coming off down years, as is Tampa Bay’s Zyon McCollum. Panthers cornerback Mike Jackson and Saints cornerback Kool-Help McKinstry had been the very best graded starters within the NFC South per Professional Soccer Focus, with Bucs nickelback Jacob Parrish not too far behind.
The division does have plenty of good safeties and Tampa Bay’s Antoine Winfield Jr. and Tykee Smith may rival Jessie Bates III and Xavier Watts. New Orleans can also be within the combine with Justin Reid, Julian Blackmon and Jonas Sanker.
Tampa Bay’s Chase “Money” McLaughlin is barely forward of Atlanta’s Zane Gonzalez because the division’s finest kicker, and we all know the Bucs don’t have the very best punter in Riley Dixon. As for the remainder of particular groups? We’ll see what sort of influence new coordinator Danny Smith could make this yr as he tries to show a crew weak point right into a power in 2026.
Bucs LS Eric Deckers and Okay Chase McLaughlin – Photograph by: Cliff Welch/PR
Tampa Bay’s protection was the worst within the division final yr from a statistical standpoint, however not by a lot. The truth is, the Bucs allowed inside two factors of each different crew within the NFC South.
2025 Scoring Protection
New Orleans – ranked 14th – 22.5 factors per gameCarolina – ranked sixteenth – 23 factors per gameAtlanta – ranked nineteenth – 23.6 factors per gameTampa Bay – ranked twentieth – 24.2 factors per recreation
When it got here to complete protection, the Bucs weren’t terribly far off from the Falcons and Panthers, whereas Brandon Staley’s Saints unit ranked inside the highest 10 in yards allowed.
2025 Whole Protection
New Orleans – ranked ninth – 299.8 yards per gameAtlanta – ranked fifteenth – 326.6 yards per gameCarolina – ranked sixteenth – 331.9 yards per gameTampa Bay – ranked twentieth – 337.2 yards per recreation
Though the Bucs offense was ravaged by accidents and had a rookie play-caller in Josh Grizzard, it was nonetheless the stop-ranked scoring unit within the division.
2025 Scoring Offense
Tampa Bay – ranked 18th – 22.4 factors per gameAtlanta – ranked twenty third – 20.8 factors per gameCarolina – ranked twenty seventh – 19 factors per gameNew Orleans – ranked twenty eighth – 18 factors per recreation
It additionally has confirmed that it has essentially the most potential, courting again to the rankings of the 2024 season.
2024 Scoring Offense
Tampa Bay – ranked 4th – 29 factors per gameAtlanta – ranked 14th – 22.9 factors per gameCarolina – ranked twenty third – 20.1 factors per gameNew Orleans – ranked twenty fourth – 19.9 factors per recreation
Regardless of having an offensive-minded head coach in Dave Canales, the Panthers scored fewer factors in 2025 than they did in 2024 – despite the fact that the win complete went up. Canales has turned the play-calling duties over to offensive coordinator Brad Idzik, who has no play-calling expertise, this yr.
Bucs HC Todd Bowles and Panthers HC Dave Canales – Photograph by: IMAGN Photos – Bob Donnan
New Orleans noticed scoring dip too, despite the fact that they employed an offensive-minded head coach in Kellen Moore. Though Moore appears to have discovered the Saints’ quarterback in Tyler Shough, and that offense was rolling on the finish of the 2025 season. The Saints averaged 23.4 factors per recreation throughout their 4-1 end down the stretch.
In Atlanta, new head coach Kevin Stefanski will name performs, however he had a spotty observe document with two playoff seasons during which he was named NFL Coach of the 12 months, but in addition 4 seasons with dropping information. I’m not offered on Stefanski in any respect, and who’s going to be the Falcons quarterback in 2026 – former first-round decide Michael Penix Jr. or newly signed Tua Tagovailoa?
And say what you need about Bowles, however is every other head coach within the division head and shoulders above him? Whereas it hasn’t all the time appeared fairly, Bowles received the division three straight years from 2022-24. Though Canales edged him for the NFC South crown final yr, he has but to provide a profitable document in Carolina. The jury remains to be out on Moore and Stefanski in New Orleans and Atlanta, respectively.
Bucs HC Todd Bowles and QB Baker Mayfield – Photograph by: Cliff Welch/PR
With the intention to recapture the NFC South title, all of the Bucs have to do is be marginally higher on protection, and get again to the usual that was set in 2024 on offense below Liam Coen with new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson. I believe they’ll do this or come shut, as Robinson and Coen each have teaching roots in Los Angeles below Sean McVay.
As soon as once more, Tampa Bay’s offense is predicted to be the stronger aspect of the ball, and ought to be the very best and most explosive unit within the division. That ought to be sufficient to get this crew again to 10 wins and atop the NFC South.
FAB 2. Baker Mayfield Offers The Bucs The Edge In The Division
The Bucs did not make the playoffs from 2008 to 2019 for one massive cause.
Subpar quarterback play.
Whereas the Saints had Drew Brees, the Falcons had Matt Ryan and the Panthers had the mixture of Jake Delhomme and Cam Newton, the Bucs began the likes of Jeff Garcia, Brian Griese, Byron Leftwich, Josh Freeman, Josh Johnson, Mike Glennon, Josh McCown, Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick throughout that span.
Tampa Bay completed useless final within the NFC South in eight of these 12 years in consequence.
No quarterback? No likelihood.
That’s life within the NFL. At all times has been, all the time will likely be.
Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photograph by: IMAGN Photos – Nathan Ray Seebeck
With that established, the Bucs have the very best and most completed quarterback within the NFC South below heart, Baker Mayfield, and that alone provides them the very best likelihood of profitable the division in 2026.
Mayfield is coming off an injury-plagued down yr in 2025 during which he needed to take care of a revolving door on the offensive line and at broad receiver, along with a rookie play-caller in Josh Grizzard. But he nonetheless handed for a division-leading 3,693 yards with 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions whereas speeding for an additional rating.
New offensive coordinator Zac Robinson’s playbook is supposedly nearer to Liam Coen’s from the 2024 season. The Bucs would like to see the 2024 model of Mayfield in 2026 as a result of he put up profession numbers – and led the crew to 10 wins. He made the Professional Bowl in 2024 whereas finishing a franchise-record 71.4% of his passes for 4,500 yards with 41 touchdowns and 16 interceptions.
Mayfield has proven he can take his recreation to that peak earlier than. I consider he can do it once more.
As for the remainder of the quarterbacks within the division? To this point they’re nonetheless unproven, and that offers Tampa Bay the instant edge.
Carolina’s Bryce Younger, a former first-round decide, is coming off a profession yr during which he handed for 3,011 yards whereas finishing 63.6% of his passes with 23 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He additionally had two speeding touchdowns. However can Younger additional elevate his recreation as he enters his fourth season with the Panthers?
Bucs DT Vita Vea and Panthers QB Bryce Younger – Photograph by: IMAGN – Bob Donnan
New Orleans believes it has discovered its franchise QB with Tyler Shough, final yr’s second-round decide. But it’s a small pattern dimension, as Shough solely began the ultimate 10 video games of his rookie season.
Nonetheless, he went 5-5 as a starter, together with sweeping the Panthers and beating the Bucs in Tampa Bay. The Saints’ different two wins had been much less spectacular, coming towards the Jets and Titans, who each completed with 3-14 information. Shough accomplished 67.6% of his passes for two,384 yards with 10 touchdowns and 6 interceptions together with three speeding scores.
The quarterback scenario is much more perplexing in Atlanta, as former first-round decide Michael Penix Jr. had his second season shortened as a consequence of a torn ACL. That’s been a recurring harm for him courting again to his faculty days. Penix handed for 1,982 yards whereas throwing for 9 touchdowns with three interceptions together with a speeding rating. But the Falcons had been 3-6 with him as a starter.
Bucs DT Vita Vea and Falcons QB Michael Penix Jr. – Photograph by: Cliff Welch/PR
However needing some insurance coverage as a consequence of Penix’s restoration, new head coach Kevin Stefanski signed former Dolphins first-rounder Tua Tagovailoa, one other oft-injured quarterback, in free company for depth and competitors. Regardless of being given an enormous contract extension in 2024, Tagovailoa was benched final yr after 14 begins and launched within the offseason. He went 6-8 as a starter and threw for two,660 yards with 20 touchdowns and 15 interceptions and was simply years faraway from a profession season during which he handed for 4,624 yards with 29 touchdowns and 14 interceptions.
Who is aware of who will in the end emerge because the starter this yr in Atlanta, and if it should lead to break up begins – or perhaps a break up locker room?
What we do know is that Mayfield is coming into a contract yr in Tampa Bay and seeking to make amends for final yr when the Bucs missed the playoffs – partially as a consequence of his season which was just a bit off as a consequence of accidents, and at instances, making an attempt to do an excessive amount of. And when Mayfield is concentrated and desirous to show himself he’s normally at his finest. That bodes effectively for the Bucs.
FAB 3. Bucs Have Excessive Hopes For Zac Robinson
Whereas Todd Bowles’ protection took a good quantity of criticism for Tampa Bay’s shortcomings in a disappointing 8-9 season final yr, let’s not overlook that the Bucs offense additionally underachieved. Maybe much more than the protection.
Granted, new offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard was dealt a tough hand with an oft-injured offensive line, a banged up Baker Mayfield, and at instances lacking the likes of offensive stars Mike Evans, Chris Godwin Jr. and Bucky Irving. In consequence, the offense’s scoring manufacturing fell from 29 factors per recreation in 2024 below Liam Coen to only 22.4 factors per recreation final yr.
That’s almost a landing lower than the Bucs scored the earlier season, which is sort of dramatic. And it was an enormous a part of why Grizzard was fired after only one season and changed by former Falcons offensive coordinator Zac Robinson.
Bucs OC Zac Robinson – Photograph by: IMAGN Photos – Mark J. Rebilas
The slippage on protection when it comes to factors allowed per recreation was not almost as vital. Tampa Bay allowed 22.7 factors per recreation in 2024 and that rose to 24.2 factors per recreation final season – almost a two-point enhance.
Scoring a median of twenty-two factors per recreation and permitting a median of 24 factors per recreation is a surefire approach to wind up with a dropping document, which is strictly what occurred in 2025.
Bowles’ protection bought the overhaul it wanted this offseason, and it ought to be incrementally higher in consequence. However with maybe Rueben Bain Jr. being the lone game-changer acquired on that aspect of the ball will probably be arduous for Tampa Bay’s protection to go from round twentieth within the league to inside the highest 10.
But the items are in place on offense for that sort of herculean bounce as a result of that unit is only one yr faraway from being within the high 5 in scoring and speeding. Coen took the Bucs offense to new heights in 2024, and the offensive personnel is essentially intact outdoors of the departure of broad receiver Mike Evans and operating again Rachaad White. But Coen didn’t have Emeka Egbuka, Tez Johnson and Ted Hurst to work with at broad receiver, and the Bucs consider Kenneth Gainwell is an improve over White at operating again.
Robinson involves Tampa Bay with two years of play-calling expertise in Atlanta the place he was 3-1 versus Bowles and the Buccaneers. He arrives with extra play-calling expertise than Coen, Grizzard or Dave Canales had once they had been every employed to be the offensive coordinator. Not solely that, Robinson and Coen are finest associates having labored collectively in Los Angeles below Sean McVay the place Coen was the offensive coordinator (McVay referred to as the performs) and Robinson was the cross recreation coordinator and quarterbacks coach.
Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photograph by: Cliff Welch/PR
Earlier than the NFL Annual Assembly, Robinson spent the weekend with Coen in Jacksonville speaking in regards to the Bucs offense and the personnel in between some rounds of golf. Coen spent his first season in Jacksonville taking a 4-13 crew to a 13-4 document and a division title, but in addition protecting shut tabs on Tampa Bay as a consequence of his affection for the coaches and the gamers he spent the 2024 season with – notably Baker Mayfield.
Like Coen, Robinson additionally labored with Mayfield for the ultimate 5 video games of the 2022 season with the Rams, and that relationship performed a key position in Robinson’s rent in Tampa Bay. He’s anticipated to take the offense again to what was so profitable in 2024 whereas additionally incorporating extra of a large zone scheme to diversify the crew’s speeding assault.
Whereas the protection underwent essentially the most quantity of personnel change through the offseason, the offense has the flexibility to make the largest strides this yr. Staying wholesome will in fact be paramount, however the Bucs are relying on Robinson to return the operating recreation and the purpose manufacturing to not less than high 10 ranges.
After talking with Coen at size in Phoenix about Robinson, I’m offered. Coen believes he’s the best man for the job on the good time, and I consider that.
FAB 4. I Don’t Assume Todd Bowles Can Screw This Up
After failing to cease the run at instances and constantly generate a cross rush through the 2025 season, the Bucs’ entrance seven was in determined want of an overhaul this offseason. And that’s precisely what occurred in free company and the draft, as basic supervisor Jason Licht gave head coach Todd Bowles a revamped roster on the defensive aspect of the ball full with 4 defensive draft picks and 4 influence free agent signings.
The Bucs could have a brand new beginning outdoors linebacker reverse Yaya Diaby in 2026 – presumably first-round decide Rueben Bain Jr. changing final yr’s free agent bust, Haason Reddick, who had simply 2.5 sacks. And simply as vital, Al-Quadin Muhammad and David Walker are anticipated to interchange Anthony Nelson and Chris Braswell on the depth chart because the second-string outdoors linebackers. Not less than on passing downs, which ought to be a big improve.
Bucs HC Todd Bowles and OLB Rueben Bain Jr. – Photograph by: Cliff Welch/PR
Josiah Trotter, the crew’s second-round decide, or newcomer Christian Rozeboom is predicted to unseat SirVocea Dennis at center linebacker. Alex Anzalone will likely be changing Lavonte David on the Mo linebacker spot on the weak aspect. That’s three new starters.
Defensive deal with A’Shawn Robinson replaces Logan Corridor because the 4i/5-technique spot in Bowles’ 3-4 base protection. In order that’s 4 new starters.
Beginning cornerback Jamel Dean will likely be changed by both Benjamin Morrison or Jacob Parrish, so which means 5 new defensive starters in Tampa Bay. And if Morrison beats out Parrish on the skin and if fourth-round decide Keionte Scott beats out Parrish for the nickelback position within the slot, now Bowles is probably taking a look at six new starters on protection.
I consider the modifications made alongside the entrance seven ought to enhance Tampa Bay’s protection. By how a lot stays to be seen. I’m not fairly positive that the secondary has been improved with Dean’s departure, however I do just like the addition of Scott, and I’m inclined to consider extra in Parrish at this level than I do in Morrison at cornerback.
Bowles’ protection ought to be extra stout towards the run and considerably higher as a cross speeding unit. A greater cross rush can masks a few of the potential deficiencies within the secondary. However all Bowles has to do is efficiently combine all of those new items on protection – and do it rapidly.
Bucs head coach Todd Bowles and OLBs coach Larry Foote – Photograph by: Cliff Welch/PR
Say what you need about Bowles, however at any time when he’s had expertise alongside the entrance seven the Bucs have fared extremely effectively. Everyone knows what Tom Brady’s arrival in 2020 did for Bruce Arians’ offense, however the defensive stats through the Bucs’ Tremendous Bowl run that yr and the 13-win season that adopted had been awfully spectacular, too.
I don’t suppose Todd Bowles can screw this up. And if Robinson does his job on offense the Bucs may truly be capable to play some complementary soccer this yr with either side of the ball displaying enchancment.
FAB 5. SR’s Buc Pictures
• Bucs broad receiver Egbuka McMillan revealed on the Up & Adams Present with Key Adams that he and Panthers receiver Tetairoa McMillan are good associates, having gotten to know one another on the draft circuit as rookies final yr. Not solely that, however they practice collectively too and have established a pleasant rivalry as inter-divisional foes.
McMillan received the NFL Offensive Rookie of the 12 months honors final yr, catching 70 passes for 1,014 yards (14.5 avg.) and 7 touchdowns. He edged out Egbuka, who hauled in 63 catches for 938 yards (14.9 avg.) and 6 TDs. This receiver rivalry ought to be enjoyable to look at within the coming years.
I really like that Emeka Egbuka & Tetairoa McMillan are associates and work out collectively.
Stunning rivalry. For years to come back. pic.twitter.com/LjexZ5zO6O
• The Bucs are actually enthusiastic about tight finish Bauer Sharp. A lot in order that they traded up into the sixth spherical to draft him. Sharp was the final tight finish on the Bucs’ board who had a draftable grade they usually needed to verify they might safe him, surrendering the crew’s seventh-round decide to take action.
Along with his tenacious mentality as a blocker, Tampa Bay liked Bauer’s on-field exercise and his athletic testing on the NFL Scouting Mix, the place he ran a 4.63 within the 40-yard sprint. Bauer’s arrival places Devin Culp within the crosshairs. To ensure that Culp to stay on the roster he must get larger and stronger within the weight room and enhance his blocking. He’s had two years to take action and impress two totally different offensive coordinators to earn extra enjoying time, however that hasn’t occurred but.
Bucs TE Bauer Sharp – Photograph by: IMAGN Photos – Scott Clause
• The truth that the Panthers have one of many hardest schedules within the league in 2026 may assist the Buccaneers reclaim the division title. By advantage of profitable the NFC South, Carolina has to play division winners within the NFC East (Philadelphia), the NFC West (Seattle) and the AFC West (Denver).
On the flip aspect, the Saints have one of many best schedules, and that would propel New Orleans up the division standings if Kellen Moore and Tyler Shough can construct on their sturdy end to the 2025 season. As a result of the Saints completed final within the NFC South a yr in the past they’ll play the New York Giants, Arizona Cardinals and Las Vegas Raiders – all of whom completed final of their respective divisions and wound up with high 5 draft picks.
NEW: NFL power of schedule for 2026!
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1-32 with perception & evaluation:https://t.co/iS1PFqfcxx
Bucs Rookie Mini-Camp Recap Exhibits On The Pewter Report Podcast Friday And Saturday
Pewter Report will recap every day of Bucs rookie mini-camp on Friday and Saturday dwell from the AdventHealth Coaching Middle at One Buccaneer Place instantly after observe ends. Each exhibits will start round 4:00 p.m. ET on the PewterReportTV YouTube channel.
Bucs CB Zyon McCollum, GM Jason Licht Be a part of The Pewter Report Podcast Subsequent Week
You should definitely be part of us subsequent week when Tampa Bay cornerback Zyon McCollum and basic supervisor Jason Licht be part of the Pewter Report Podcast on Monday, Might 11 and Wednesday, Might 13, respectively. Each exhibits start at 4:00 p.m. ET on the PewterReportTV YouTube channel.
