SR’s FAB 5: Will The Bucs Make A Huge Commerce For A Move Rusher? | Pewter Report

INTRO: The Bucs want an elite edge rusher in the event that they wish to make a critical run on the Tremendous Bowl in 2025. However how will they purchase an outdoor linebacker able to getting double-digit sacks this offseason? A blockbuster commerce? A splash free agent signing? A stealth free agent addition with a younger, unproven edge rusher? Or will Licht attempt his hand on the draft once more and choose one other edge rusher with a premium choose for the third straight yr?

I discover the problem that lies forward for Jason Licht, Todd Bowles and the entrance workplace in a brand new SR’s Fab 5. Take pleasure in!

FAB 1. Will Jason Licht Make A Blockbuster Commerce For An Elite Edge Rusher?

You’re asking Jason Licht to do one thing he’s by no means executed earlier than.

You’re asking him to make a blockbuster commerce for a premier edge rusher involving premium draft picks.

You’re asking him to presumably give up two first-round picks (and possibly extra) for Cleveland Professional Bowler Myles Garrett, who simply requested a commerce to a Tremendous Bowl contender.

Otherwise you’re suggesting that he probably commerce a second-rounder – and possibly it’s first-rounder – for Cincinnati Professional Bowler Trey Hendrickson, who has had back-to-back years with 17.5 sacks.

Bucs VP of participant personnel Rob McCartney and GM Jason Licht – Picture by: Cliff Welch/PR

A few of you need don’t need Licht to commerce for an elite edge rusher. You’d reasonably he save his draft capital to pay Khalil Mack, who had six sacks for the Chargers final yr at age 34, round $22 million-$23 million per yr on a multi-year deal in free company.

You noticed Yaya Diaby lead Tampa Bay’s outdoors linebackers with simply 4.5 sacks final yr and know that the Bucs want extra stress from the sting if this crew goes to make a critical Tremendous Bowl run in 2025.

The 2 occasions this franchise has received a Tremendous Bowl, it has had at the least one dominant edge rusher. In 2002, that was Simeon Rice who had 15.5 sacks reverse Greg Spires, who had 3.5 sacks. In 2020, it was Shaq Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul, who mixed for 17.5 sacks in the course of the common season.

Vita Vea turned 30 on February 5. Chris Godwin turns 29 on February 27. Baker Mayfield turns 30 on April 14. Mike Evans turns 32 on August 21. These franchise Bucs are nonetheless of their prime, however received’t be for lengthy.

Tampa Bay’s Tremendous Bowl window is open. It’s time to go for it, because the Bucs ought to be a legit Tremendous Bowl contender within the NFC in 2025.

San Francisco took an enormous step backward final season. Detroit misplaced each coordinators and could possibly be taking a step backward this yr. Have been the stellar seasons by Minnesota and Washington flukes in 2024 or have been they for actual?

Bucs OLB Yaya Diaby and Commanders QB Jayden Daniels – Picture by: Cliff Welch/PR

Everybody is aware of that the Bucs must retool their protection and discover as many as 5 new starters – with cornerback and robust security presumably becoming a member of the massive wants at inside linebacker (two) and out of doors linebacker.

The Bucs may very effectively draft one other edge this yr – maybe within the first spherical – however Licht’s observe file isn’t the perfect at outdoors linebacker. Noah Spence, a second-rounder in 2016, was a bust. Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, the final choose within the first spherical in 2021, has not lived as much as expectations and isn’t starter materials. He received’t be re-signed in free company.

Diaby, a third-round choose in 2023, has been successful, however with 12 sacks in two seasons, he’s extra of a No. 2 on the surface linebacker depth chart reasonably than an alpha, double-digit go rusher that this roster is lacking. Chris Braswell, final yr’s second-round choose, was gradual to develop and solely had 1.5 sacks as a rookie.

I’ve additionally blamed outdoors linebackers coach George Edwards for failing to stage up the younger edge rushers, together with Markees Watts and Jose Ramirez, and being too connected to Tryon-Shoyinka. So, if I’m Licht, do I belief myself to lastly nail a double-digit edge rusher? And maybe extra importantly, do I belief Edwards to quickly deliver out the perfect within the subsequent edge rusher I draft whether or not it’s Marshall’s Mike Inexperienced, Boston School’s Donovan Ezeiruaku or one other stud sacker?

That state of affairs definitely makes buying and selling for – or signing – a confirmed, skilled edge rusher so interesting this offseason, doesn’t it?

However that is uncharted territory for Licht. The 2 Tremendous Bowl-winning edge rushers he acquired – Pierre-Paul and Barrett – got here by way of a commerce with a third-round choose and by way of a one-year, prove-it deal price $5 million, respectively.

Former Bucs OLB Jason Pierre-Paul and GM Jason Licht / Picture by: Cliff Welch/PR

Licht has by no means performed a blockbuster commerce in his 11 years because the Bucs’ basic supervisor. He didn’t ship two first-rounders – in the identical draft in 2000 – to the New York Jets for Keyshawn Johnson. Former basic supervisor Wealthy McKay did that.

Nor did Licht ship two first-round picks, two second-round picks and $8 million in money to the Oakland Raiders for Jon Gruden. The late Bucs proprietor Malcolm Glazer did that in 2002.

Licht didn’t commerce a first-round choose for one-year rental of cornerback Darrelle Revis. Former Bucs basic supervisor Mark Dominik did that in 2013.

What have been Licht’s largest trades thus far? Sending a third-rounder for Pierre-Paul in 2018 was his largest one.

He additionally traded a fourth-round choose and tight finish Tim Wright for guard Logan Mankins in 2014. He shipped a third- and a fourth-rounder to Indianapolis to maneuver up 4 spots within the second spherical to pick guard Ali Marpet in 2015. And he traded a third- and a fourth-rounder to Kansas Metropolis to maneuver up into the second spherical to pick kicker Roberto Aguayo in 2016.

Licht’s largest strikes have sometimes been reserved free of charge company the place he made Ryan Jensen the league’s highest-paid middle twice – in 2018 and once more in 2022 – and landed the best quarterback of all time, Tom Brady, in 2020.

So will this be the yr Licht does one thing he’s by no means executed earlier than and makes a blockbuster commerce for an influence go rusher? Or will he proceed to worth his draft picks and choose to not use draft capital for a longtime edge rusher?

With the Tremendous Bowl window open and among the Bucs’ prime gamers nearing the tip of their prime within the coming years, it will likely be an enchanting to see what Licht decides to do that offseason. Let’s check out the situations that might unfold by way of the perfect accessible edge rushers and see which route Licht is extra more likely to take.

FAB 2. Buying and selling For Browns Professional Bowler Myles Garrett Will Price A Fortune

Former Bucs QB Tom Brady and Browns DE Myles Garrett – Picture by: USA As we speak

So that you need Myles Garrett? Get in line.

And I don’t imply get in line behind former Tampa Bay defensive sort out Gerald McCoy and the legions of different Bucs followers who need Jason Licht to commerce for the six-time Professional Bowler.

I imply get in line behind a number of different NFL groups that need Garrett, too. There could possibly be fairly just a few groups that need Garrett, who desires out of Cleveland after a three-win season, preferring to go to a official Tremendous Bowl contender.

Or possibly the Bucs are literally on the entrance of the road – whether or not they’re critical about buying and selling for Garrett or not – as a consequence of their draft order?

Tampa Bay has the No. 19 general choose, and that’s definitely larger than both Philadelphia or Kansas Metropolis, who will choose at No. 31 and No. 32 relying on the end result of Tremendous Bowl LIX. And the Bucs have higher draft positioning than the Chargers (No. 22), Packers (No. 24) and Commanders (No. 29). Garrett would possibly choose to go to a type of groups as an alternative, however the Browns are going to need the perfect compensation package deal attainable for dealing away their franchise participant and which means sending him to the crew with the best first-round choose.

Oh, and it’s going to value two first-round picks, too. Pewter Report’s Josh Queipo laid out the price of buying and selling for Garrett in a latest video for PewterReportTV, our YouTube channel.

Myles Garrett vs. Bucs – Picture by: USA As we speak

Sure, the 29-year previous Garrett is that good of a go rusher and can command at the least two first-round picks. The 6-foot-4, 272-pound Garrett has 102.5 sacks in his profession, averaging 14.9 sacks per season. He’s had double-digit sacks in every of the final seven seasons.

So a crew like Atlanta, who picks fifteenth general, or Arizona, who has the No. 16 general choose and whose main sacker was Zaven Collins with 5, could possibly be a extra engaging buying and selling companion for Cleveland than Tampa Bay, which picks later within the first spherical. That may imply that buying and selling for Garrett would value greater than two first-round picks.

And it’ll value a hefty sum of money, too.

Garrett, who has two years left on a contract that pays him $25 million per yr, probably additionally desires a brand new contract as he turns 30 on the finish of this yr. The six-time Professional Bowler is the fifth-highest paid edge rusher and certain desires to prime San Francisco’s Nick Bosa, who’s making $34 million per yr.

So on prime of the 2 first-round picks it might value to accumulate Garrett, he’s going to be a heavy wage cap hit for a Tampa Bay crew that solely has $2,239,732 price of cap house proper now.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and Raiders DE Maxx Crosby – Picture by: USA As we speak

In case you’re questioning, it might probably value two first-round picks for Las Vegas’ edge rusher Maxx Crosby, too. Crosby, who has two years left on a deal that pays him $23.5 million per season, is simply 28 and buying and selling him would save the Raiders practically $17.8 million in cap cash. Not that they want it, although. New basic supervisor John Spytek already has $92.5 million of accessible cap house, which is the second-most within the NFL proper now.

I consider buying and selling for Myles Garrett is the least probably state of affairs for the Bucs this offseason of their pursuit of a go rusher. Why? As a result of if Tampa Bay solely wanted an alpha edge rusher it might be completely different. However the Bucs protection additionally wants two beginning inside linebackers, presumably one other robust security to interchange Jordan Whitehead and probably one other beginning cornerback to interchange the oft-injured Jamel Dean.

Does Licht have the abdomen for a mega deal like this the place he’s going from six draft picks down to 5 in 2025 – and maybe right down to 4 if it might value him an extra third-round choose to beat out one other crew’s compensation package deal, along with shedding a first-rounder in 2026? I don’t know, however I don’t assume he does.

So let’s take a look at different situations the place Licht may purchase an elite edge rusher.

FAB 3. Buying and selling For Trey Hendrickson Gained’t Come At Such A Hefty Worth

Bengals DE Trey Hendrickson – Picture by: USA As we speak

Bengals defensive finish Trey Hendrickson is not any Myles Garrett, however he’s no slouch, both.

The 6-foot-4, 270-pounder led the league with 17.5 sacks final yr and posted an an identical variety of sacks the yr prior. Since notching 13.5 sacks in his last season in New Orleans, Hendrickson has been a double-digit sacker in all 4 seasons in Cincinnati, the place he has been a four-time Professional Bowler.

A yr older than Garrett at age 30, Hendrickson goes to be traded this offseason because the Bengals want the $15.8 million in money that he’s set to make for his base wage with a view to lengthen the contract of Professional Bowl huge receiver Ja’Marr Chase. Hendrickson is within the last yr of his contract and buying and selling him will even clear $16 million in cap room.

Buying and selling for Hendrickson probably received’t value a crew two first-round picks. He’s not the whole participant that Garrett is as an elite run stuffer, too. It may cost a little a second-rounder to accumulate Hendrickson or maybe a first-rounder after which getting a mid-round choose in return along with the elite go rusher who remains to be in his prime.

Hendrickson is at the moment the Eleventh-highest paid edge rusher within the NFL at $21 million per yr. He’s not essentially gunning to be highest paid participant at his place, however he’ll probably wish to be within the Prime 5. So which means a elevate to round $28 million per yr on probably a three- or four-year deal.

Bear in mind, the most important commerce Jason Licht has made for an additional veteran was giving up a third-rounder for Jason Pierre-Paul in 2018. I may see Licht leveling up on this state of affairs greater than I can see him pulling the set off on a mega commerce for Garrett.

Bengals DE Trey Hendrickson – Picture by: USA As we speak

Licht and his crew of scouts have executed an incredible job of discovering expertise all through the draft. So he received’t half methods with draft picks very flippantly.

The primary spherical has introduced in gamers not too long ago like Vita Vea, Tristan Wirfs, Calijah Kancey and Graham Barton. The second spherical has produced gamers like Antoine Winfield Jr., Luke Goedeke and Cody Mauch in recent times. The third spherical has delivered the likes of Jamel Dean, Rachaad White, Tykee Smith and Jalen McMillan to Tampa Bay. And the fourth and fifth spherical has introduced Bucky Irving, Zyon McCollum, SirVocea Dennis and Payne Durham to the Bucs.

But regardless of all of Licht’s success within the draft, he has struggled to draft an elite edge rusher. So maybe he makes a transfer for Hendrickson the way in which he traded for JPP and will get a confirmed commodity at attending to the quarterback. I may see Licht buying and selling for Hendrickson greater than I may him dealing a number of picks for Garrett.

However maybe Licht doesn’t wish to hand over any draft picks this yr.

FAB 4. Bucs Might Pursue A Premier Free Agent Move Rusher

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles and GM Jason Licht – Picture courtesy of the Buccaneers

There’s a likelihood that the Bucs would possibly wish to pursue a commerce for Myles Garrett or Trey Hendrickson this offseason. But if that’s the case, there isn’t a assure that Tampa Bay would land both go rusher.

The Bucs may lose out on each to different groups with higher draft compensation packages.

Or possibly Jason Licht simply desires to maintain all six of his draft picks this yr and signal a go rusher in free company.

In any case, the first-rounder that Tampa Bay would give up to Cleveland, or a second-rounder that the crew may ship to Cincinnati, would possibly wind up being the beginning cornerback or the beginning inside linebacker that Todd Bowles wants. The Bucs have a number of wants on protection and will see as many as 5 new starters there in 2025.

The free agent market isn’t as plentiful as this yr’s draft on the subject of edge rushers, however there are just a few headliners, together with Chargers defensive finish Khalil Mack, Eagles defensive finish Josh Sweat, Jets outdoors linebacker Haason Reddick and Saints defensive finish Chase Younger.

In line with Pewter Report’s cap guru Josh Queipo, Mack’s age will probably earn him a elevate from $19 million per yr to $22.5 million, however preserve him out of the Prime 5 incomes edge rushers. It’s a dangerous funding for a go rusher who turns 34 on February 22, and whose sack quantity dropped from 17 in 2023 to only six in 2024.

Chargers OLB Khalil Mack – Picture by: USA As we speak

Mack nonetheless has it, in line with Professional Soccer Focus, as his 2024 grade of 90.2 was much like his 91.8 grade in 2023. And his go rush grade solely dipped barely from 86.3 to 78.9. However in some unspecified time in the future, Mack will lose a step – and it will likely be sooner reasonably than later. However will it’s in 2025 or 2026?

The Bucs are on the lookout for a pace rusher off the sting to enhance Yaya Diaby, who’s extra of an influence rusher. That’s why signing Sweat might not be as interesting as a result of he additionally wins with energy.

Sweat turns 28 on March 29, and has only one double-digit sack season (11 in 2022). But he’s coming off a very good eight-sack season in 2024 and can probably earn near $17 million per yr on his subsequent deal.

Younger will solely flip 26 on April 14, however he’s didn’t reside as much as his No. 2 general draft standing from the 2020 draft. He’s posted two 7.5-sack seasons in 2020 and in 2023 when he notched 5 with Washington earlier than being traded to San Francisco the place he grabbed 2.5 extra.

However Younger could possibly be on to his fourth crew in six years after notching 5.5 sacks in New Orleans final season. Regardless of being overrated, Younger will probably fetch $15 million per yr from some determined crew that also believes in his hype. I doubt it will likely be Tampa Bay, as Younger has by no means been an element when taking part in the Bucs in earlier years.

Eagles OLB Haason Reddick – Picture by: USA As we speak

Reddick is the opposite big-name edge rusher who could possibly be pursued this offseason. The Bucs have been chilly on him earlier than as a result of he has executed nothing in opposition to Tampa Bay in earlier video games, whether or not it’s with Philadelphia or with Carolina. Reddick is an undersized pace rusher at 6-foot-1, 240 kilos, which is way smaller than Shaq Barrett was.

He’ll flip 31 on September 22, however he could have already misplaced a step. After 4 straight seasons with double-digit sacks from 2020-23, Reddick was traded to the Jets as a result of he needed an even bigger contract. As soon as he arrived in New York he held out for the primary seven weeks of the season after which solely notched one sack in 10 video games down the stretch.

That actually dampened his bargaining energy this offseason, and he developed the repute for being all in regards to the cash. Nonetheless, some crew will take an opportunity on the speedy Reddick and hope that 2024 was a fluke and {that a} large day will get him again on observe at sacking quarterbacks at a excessive price. Reddick is projected to signal a deal price $15 million per yr.

So if Licht desires to avoid wasting a draft choose he may take an opportunity on certainly one of these high-priced, confirmed go rushers – of various levels – and hope the Bucs get what they pay for.

Or Licht may journey down a well-recognized highway.

FAB 5. It’s Dangerous To Attempt To Discover The Subsequent Shaq Barrett

Bucs OLB Shaq Barrett – Picture by: Cliff Welch P/R

Jason Licht and the Bucs have had success nailing a few free agent signings who got here to Tampa Bay on low cost, one-year offers.

Exterior linebacker Shaq Barrett signed a one-year, $5 million contract in 2019 and wound up main the NFL in sacks with 19.5 that season. Quarterback Baker Mayfield signed a one-year, $4 million take care of incentives and wound up resurrecting his profession in Tampa Bay and develop into a two-time Professional Bowler within the course of.

How a lot did luck play into the signings of Barrett and Mayfield and the way a lot of it was simply absolute nailing the scouting stories on each gamers? There was some quantity of luck concerned to a point with these signings, proper?

And naturally, luck isn’t a technique.

But this can be a plan of action that Licht has adopted earlier than, signing Barrett in 2019 and likewise signing veteran edge rusher Randy Gregory to a one-year deal price $3 million final yr. But that signing blew up within the Bucs’ face as Gregory by no means reported to OTAs, the necessary mini-camp and coaching camp and was launched in August.

Bucs OLB Randy Gregory – Picture by: USA As we speak

Ought to he wish to draft one other edge rusher, maybe within the first or second spherical once more, after which hedge his guess with one other low cost, prove-it deal for a younger edge rusher, there are just a few dangers he may take this March.

Raiders edge rusher Okay’Lavon Chaisson, a former first-round choose, is simply 25 years previous and is coming off a five-sack season, which is his finest, in his lone season in Las Vegas. The speedy, athletic, part-time starter signed a one-year deal price $1.125 million and will fetch an analogous deal in 2025.

Bengals outdoors linebacker Joseph Ossai has needed to struggle for taking part in time behind Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard and solely began three video games final yr. However the former second-round choose is coming off a career-best 5 sacks and two pressured fumbles and can solely be 25 this season. He may fetch a two-year deal price $4.5 million per season.

Vikings outdoors linebacker Pat Jones II has been in an analogous state of affairs behind Andrew Van Ginkel and Jonathan Greenard, but recorded a career-high seven sacks taking part in in 15 video games final yr with one begin. Jones was a third-round choose within the 2021 NFL Draft and teammates with Calijah Kancey and SirVocea Dennis at Pittsburgh.

Bengals OLB Joseph Ossai – Picture by: USA As we speak

The 26-year previous Jones has 12 profession sacks, which was the identical quantity as Barrett when he landed in Tampa Bay in 2019. Like Ossai, the 6-foot-4, 264-pound Jones will probably land a deal round $4.5 million per season.

These three edge rushers are youthful and cheaper, however definitely much less confirmed. Don’t take a look at their PFF grades since you received’t like what you see.

But maybe one may simply want a change of surroundings and a possibility to begin in Tampa Bay to achieve their full potential like Barrett did. I’m not advocating for it as I don’t assume any of those three may develop into the following Barrett – and even near him. However they’re choices that Tampa Bay may take into account – and finally dismiss, too.

Will probably be fascinating to see how Licht and the Bucs handle their want for an elite outdoors linebacker this offseason as there are a number of paths that could possibly be taken.

Select correctly, Jason.