The Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3) have a troublesome check on Sunday in opposition to an awesome 11-2 Philadelphia Eagles, hoping to finish their nine-game profitable streak.
Let’s dive into the matchup.
QUARTERBACKS – Philadelphia’s Jaylen Hurts is a potent expertise on the helm of their offense. He has 325 makes an attempt (T-Twenty first), 2,456 passing yards (Twenty first), 17 touchdowns (T-Eleventh), and simply 4 interceptions (T-Ninth) out of 41 qualifiers (min. 113 makes an attempt).
Steeler Russell Wilson continues to guide the passing sport to heights not seen since Ben Roethlisberger’s retirement. In seven video games, Wilson now has 213 makes an attempt, 1,784 yards, 12 touchdowns, and three interceptions.
The groups have the same philosophy, together with caring for the soccer. When it comes to offensive turnovers, every squad has 11, which ties for sixth finest per my NFL turnover differentials via Week 14 article. Key part to any sport, and Week 15 isn’t any exception.
Whereas that is true, every passer can gouge you with the massive play of inconceivable completion. Right here is completion % above anticipated (CPAE) and Passer Scores (RAT) via Week 14:
Hurts leads the NFL with a 6.4 CPAE, one among solely three gamers with a mark above 4.0. Wilson is simply outdoors that group with a 3.7 quantity that ranks fourth. Whereas each groups have a run first mentality, there’ll little doubt be electrifying moments within the passing sport, and hopefully Pittsburgh is on the proper facet of that battle.
Passer scores intend for instance the worth of quarterback play, and the gamers have additionally delivered fireworks in these phrases. Wilson has a 103.9 RAT this season, rating sixth-best, with Hurts simply behind him at 102.4 (seventh). High quality over amount, contemplating Pittsburgh’s 376 go makes an attempt to Philadelphia’s 328, rating twenty ninth and least league-wide.
The flipside is the matchup options two groups that lead the NFL in speeding makes an attempt. Philadelphia has 473 (first) to Pittsburgh’s 438 (second). For context, solely 5 offenses have eclipsed 400 makes an attempt via Week 14.
The Eagles are also tops in workforce speeding yards (2,476), one among simply three groups above 2,000. Compared, Pittsburgh has 1,717 (ninth), illustrating the powerful problem Pittsburgh’s fourth ranked run protection faces on Sunday.
Let’s look at the scary proposition of their speeding assault additional. Right here’s a visible of gamers (no matter place) with double-digit speeding TDs, and their yardage thus far:
Right here we see that Hurts ties for essentially the most speeding touchdowns within the NFL at 13, the one QB on the record via Week 14, and tying with a stellar rusher in Raven Derrick Henry. That has come on the least yardage (544) and makes an attempt (132) of the group, however these marks rank prime three amongst quarterbacks.
They after all make use of the well-known “Tush Push”, deadly in brief yardage and pink zone alternatives Pittsburgh’s protection should be stout in for hopeful victory. Make no mistake, Hurts can bust of the massive gainer as nicely, with an explosive run in six-of-13 video games in 2024.
RUNNING BACKS – If that problem wasn’t sufficient, Eagles Saquon Barkley is the most effective working again in soccer proper now. He leads qualifiers (46, min. 75 makes an attempt) with 266 rush makes an attempt, 1,623 yards, and 6.1 yards per carry. The latter is extraordinarily spectacular on essentially the most quantity within the NFL. Their two-headed monster has restricted his speeding TDs to 11, which nonetheless ties for fourth-best. Wow.
To achieve extra context, right here’s eight males within the field charges (8MIB) and effectivity (EFF – measures north/south speeding):
Barkley is essentially the most environment friendly rusher within the league, with a 2.98 quantity. He’s the one qualifier under three (decrease numbers are finest), impressively. He explodes vertically at an alarming fee so Pittsburgh’s protection have to be hold forth the snap and hole sound.
With all their expertise throughout the offense, Barkley has confronted 24.1 8MIB, rating 14th. Lower than you might assume on the elite expertise, after all a part to his success. The Steelers protection prides taking away the oppositions largest menace. How usually they play 8MIB, their effectiveness, and if that has a detrimental influence within the passing sport is paramount. Is likely to be powerful with SS DeShon Elliott out (hamstring).
Compared, Pittsburgh’s Najee Harris has the upper 29.1 8MIB, fifth-most of qualifiers. Fairly a distinction from Barkley in EFF, at 4.3, fifth-worst of 46 gamers. Far more east-to-west, and lesser baseline outcomes: 223 makes an attempt (T-fifth), 877 yards (twelfth), 3.9 YPC (thirty sixth), 5 TDs (T-Nineteenth).
Steeler Jaylen Warren has regarded higher the previous few video games. Lands proper on the imply, with 3.9 EFF (twenty fifth), and the bottom 20.7 8MIB of the matchup (twenty fourth). A part of that is taking part in passing conditions, and the protection anticipating that. Dashing will hopefully be robust for Pittsburgh, however face the Eagles eighth ranked run protection. Hope they make the most of RBs !LINK within the display screen sport, an extension of the run sport the place Pittsburgh has improved this season.
OFFENSIVE LINES – Clearly key to any matchup.
Each teams are wholesome, so listed here are PFF blocking grades for the starters (min. 500 snaps) via Week 14:
We are able to clearly see Philadelphia has the sting in blocking grades, with a really gifted o-line that fuels their success. All 5 are above the imply in RBLK, and have three gamers above common in every. Pittsburgh has two above common in RBLK, however none in each.
Eagles anticipated OL:
LT Jordan Mailata: 94.2 RBLK (1st/60), 91.1 PBLK (2nd).
LG Landon Dickerson: 80.4 RBLK (sixth/61), 71.8 PBLK (18th).
C Cam Jurgens: 71.3 RBLK (tenth/28), 58.8 PBLK (twenty second).
RG Mekhi Becton: 76.4 RBLK (fifteenth/61), 62.3 PBLK (forty second).
RT Lane Johnson: 81.6 RBLK (seventh/60), 87.8 PBLK (sixth).
Wow. Mailata is without doubt one of the finest tackles within the NFL, with 90-plus grades in every, top-two on the place. Johnson can be top-ten in each, the hardest problem Pittsburgh robust edge rushers have seen this season. Just one sack allowed between each tackles, so hopefully the Steelers can change that script on Sunday.
Hurts ties for fourth-most fumbles within the NFL, so that is one among my largest hopes for Pittsburgh, and calling for a pressured fumble from league-leader T.J. Watt and group who ball-search so nicely.
Their inside o-line has weak PBLK grades as compared, so DL Cam Heyward and firm have to create a go rush push. The Steelers are with out Larry Ogunjobi (groin), together with a hopeful return of Montravius Adams questionable (knee). Large within the problem they current as a largely prime ten RBLK unit. Scary.
Pittsburgh OL:
LT Dan Moore: 64.3 RBLK (Thirty fifth/60), 70.3 PBLK (thirty sixth).
LG Isaac Seumalo: 69.2 RBLK (twenty fourth/61), 61.8 PBLK (forty fifth).
C Zach Frazier: 79.5 RBLK (4th/28), 62.6 PBLK (Sixteenth).
RG Mason McCormick: 51.8 RBLK (59th/61), 65.3 PBLK (Thirty third).
RT Broderick Jones: 63.2 RBLK (fortieth/60), 49.8 PBLK (58th).
PFF grades aren’t gospel, however these are stark compared to Philadelphia. Frazier’s RBLK is the exception, regularly with a prime 5 RBLK a lot of 2024. Very gifted Eagles d-line although, and Pittsburgh should win the trenches or it could possibly be a protracted day.
Philadelphia ties for seventh league-wide in sacks. Pittsburgh has allowed stress on Wilson too usually, although he’s been good at eluding it of late. Hopefully it transpires equally, together with the same defensive outing to Hurts’ most sacks taken (4) in fairly some time.
Clearly big in hopeful limitation of their go sport, possible giving lower than desired consideration to their receivers with their potent run sport.
WIDE RECEIVERS – One other place the Eagles have stacked with expertise. There was some drama, with some public “beef” as A.J. Brown seemingly desires extra targets. He has 66 on the yr, tying for forty fifth (90, min. 38 targets), 48 catches (T-Thirty fifth), 836 yards (fifteenth), 4 TDs (T-Thirty third). Some validity. however wouldn’t name it struggling, when your stacked at each place and 11-2.
They may look to alter the narrative of the storyline, and Brown has excelled in opposition to Pittsburgh previously. Pittsburgh’s Joey Porter Jr. will possible be on him most, and can hopefully be capable of plaster and frustrate him, knock on wooden limiting his influence with dedication to the run sport and Elliott out as nicely. Large key.
Don’t overlook about Eagle DeVonta Smith, a primary expertise as nicely. Close to Brown’s targets at 62 (T-54th), with 45 catches (T-Thirty ninth), 553 yards (T-Forty third), and 5 TDs (T-Sixteenth). CB Donte Jackson has carried out some good issues this season, however this one-two punch is extraordinarily powerful.
Sadly, Steeler WR George Pickens is out for a second-straight sport. Pittsburgh’s extensive receivers did some good issues final week in his absence, however Philadelphia’s robust second-ranked go yardage protection is on one other stage. Should step up, and including to his team-leading 5 interceptions (fourth-league extensive) could be big.
There’s a story that Hurts hasn’t processed within the go sport as nicely in 2024, and the way nice would FS Minkah Fitzpatrick getting his first decide of 2024 be.
Some stats stick out within the matchup. Right here’s common yards after catch above anticipated (YACAE), and common separation (SEP) this season:
Brown is deadly in yards after catch, a bodily specimen with a 2.8 YACAE that’s second-best amongst qualifying receivers that’s powerful to deal with, wow. That is despite the third-least 2.2 separation in 2024, akin to Pickens with considerably much less YAC worth as compared. Paints a doomy image. Can’t miss tackles, or it could possibly be all she wrote.
Pittsburgh’s Calvin Austin has carried out some good issues, with the most effective stability of each within the outlook. His 2.1 YACAE ranks sixth, and has created 2.9 yards of separation close to league common. The Steelers will certainly want explosive performs on this sport, and YAC will possible be the avenue in opposition to a really robust secondary.
Smith leads them in separation as a gifted route runner, however lands under the imply this season. That can hopefully be the case in opposition to Pittsburgh, together with hopefully limiting his YAC. The stats don’t bear out his superior talents, and will get lose contemplating Pittsburgh’s take away your prime weapon mantra.
TIGHT ENDS – One place the place Pittsburgh has a transparent benefit, with gifted Eagle Dallas Goedert touchdown on IR not too long ago. Grant Calcaterra is subsequent man up, coming off a three-catch efficiency together with a pink zone TD. May leak free with every little thing Pittsburgh’s protection should account for. Versatile alignments: inline, slot, and the backfield.
A pair stats could possibly be strong for each groups within the matchup, catch charges and yards after catch (YAC):
They are going to absolutely miss Goedert, however Calcaterra has additionally been robust in these phrases, albeit on much less alternative. He’s one among solely three qualifiers (50, min. 20 targets) with a 90-plus catch fee, at 90.9 which ranks third. 20-for-22 receiving, in comparison with Steeler Pat Freiermuth, who ranks simply above him (91.7) on a a lot increased 48 targets (Twenty first) and 44 catches (twelfth). 6.3 YAC for Calcaterra, tied for eighth-best, so one other fear that will happen.
Pittsburgh’s Darnell Washington leads the matchup with 6.8 YAC, tying for third. The offense has regarded robust when YAC is aplenty, and hope the place exhibits out in these phrases.
Freiermuth has good moments in these phrases, however is the one matchup participant under the imply with 4.9 YAC (T-Twenty eighth). Hope that appears higher, however a tradeoff is being focused deeper downfield, together with his highest 11.0 common distance of goal of 2024 final week. Hopefully it’s a giant sport with Pickens sidelined one other sport.
DEFENSE – One other stout unit Pittsburgh has to take care of. Whereas the Eagles have total good well being this late within the yr, EDGE Brandon Graham is a giant latest loss to IR. Recalling their seventh-rank in sacks (43) factors to plenty of manufacturing elsewhere, together with 19 from the place outdoors of Graham, led by Josh Sweat (seven). Aligns on the proper primarily, so Moore has one other powerful matchup after faring higher in opposition to Myles Garrett final week.
Let’s have a look at some stats:
Go Yards: Philadelphia (2nd). Pittsburgh (seventeenth).
Rush Yards: Steelers (4th). Eagles (eighth).
Their go rush actually aids their second ranked go protection, together with a gifted secondary the place rush and protection go hand-in-hand, and Pittsburgh stale as compared. High ten run defenses will every have powerful duties, and inspiring to see Pittsburgh with the higher mark. However the problem is like none they’ve confronted, and should show themselves worthy of a prime 5 rank in opposition to the highest working sport in soccer.
Situational success (or lack thereof) is clearly key. Listed here are season ranks:
Third down: Steelers (2nd). Eagles (T-Third).
Fourth down: Philadelphia (twenty second). Steelers (twenty seventh).
Crimson zone: Eagles (seventh). Steelers (Thirteenth).
Two unbelievable third down defenses face off on Sunday, as prime three models within the NFL. This might be essential for Pittsburgh to proceed, and significantly getting Philadelphia’s offense behind the chains could be big contemplating how powerful it’s to cease their tush push and run sport. One other problem in opposition to Philadelphia’s stronger unit are three-and-out drives, which Pittsburgh’s offense has confronted Thirteenth-most in 2024. Can’t fizzle out on this one.
Decrease marks by far on fourth down for each models, and will actually see the scenario develop into an element. The Steelers sixth-worst mark has been a discouraging situation, significantly of late, and hopefully get proper much more than some enhancements in opposition to Cleveland the second time round.
Crimson zone will after all be very important as nicely, one other edge that goes to Philadelphia as a prime ten unit. That can be true of their offense (ninth), with a transparent edge on Pittsburgh’s twenty ninth rank. Seems to be doom and gloom on paper, however any given Sunday will hopefully happen, with whoever wins out possible the victor.
To shut, right here’s a visible of defenses go and run EPA (measures total scoring influence):
Week 12 Go Protection EPA: Pittsburgh (fifth). Philadelphia (eighth).
Week 12 Run Protection EPA: Eagles (2nd). Steelers (14th).
The Eagles are a prime ten EPA unit in each, significantly their second ranked run protection. It will be fairly the accomplishment if Pittsburgh can have a strong day speeding the ball on offense (fingers crossed), and we additionally see their extra common run protection EPA is discouraging, permitting speeding TDs greater than their encouraging yardage totals.
Vivid facet, Pittsburgh has the higher go protection EPA, however the slender edge illustrates how strong Philadelphia’s workforce is throughout the board as I wrap a bow on the outlook. Stats are simply that, and Pittsburgh should buck a number of traits in hopes of the win. Right here’s to hoping for simply that, as additionally they have to try to drag this off on the street this weekend.
Opponent-Scouting-Studies: Offense Protection
Damage-Studies: Steelers Eagles
