The Honolulu Blueprint: 10 keys to a Lions Week 16 victory over the Bears

The Detroit Lions (12-2) are again on the street in Week 16, touring with the division to tackle their rival, the Chicago Bears (4-10). Detroit received the primary battle between these two groups in Week 13, and just like the Lions, we’ll revisit our earlier recreation plan to see what labored.

So, let’s check out Week 13’s Honolulu Blueprint, discover what was profitable, what wasn’t, and any alterations that should be made for Week 16.

Bears offensive and defensive schemes

Because the Lions performed the Bears three weeks in the past, Chicago fired head coach Matt Eberflus and promoted Thomas Brown to interim head coach. Within the span of 17 days, Brown went from the Bears passing recreation coordinator to interim offensive coordinator to go coach—fairly a journey. Moreover, Chris Beatty was promoted from vast receivers coach to interim offensive coordinator.

Regardless of the shuffling of the teaching employees, the Bears have stored fairly near the identical method to their offensive and defensive schemes. Brown was the OC once we final broke down the Bears offense, and he’s stored his changes in place, whereas Eric Washington was the defensive coordinator and stays in that function. Due to this fact, there’s not a lot new to study, however if you happen to missed it beforehand, right here is our complementary article: Lions Week 13 Preview: Breaking down Bears’ offensive and defensive schemes.

Key 1: Bounce on them early

Did it work?

Sure. The Lions took a 16-0 lead into the half and whereas they solely managed to attain on the second possession of the third quarter, the work they did early helped them put up sufficient factors to win.

What’s modified?

The Bears have gotten worse on this space. In truth, the Bears have scored zero first-half factors in opposition to the 49ers and Vikings of their two video games since final going through Detroit.

Changes?

This could proceed to be a precedence as a result of, whereas the Bears tried a second-half comeback in Detroit, within the earlier two video games, the Bears have folded as soon as they obtained behind. They solely scored 13 factors in opposition to the 49ers and simply 12 vs. the Vikings.

Key 2: Run “right” into the Huge-9

Did it work?

Sure. The Lions ran the ball 33 occasions for 194 yards in Week 13, with 20 of these makes an attempt and 148 of their complete dashing yards coming through the “right” aspect of the formation.

What’s modified?

The Lions will probably be with out David Montgomery as he recovers from an MCL damage. Within the earlier matchup in opposition to the Bears, Montgomery ran the ball 21 occasions.

Changes?

With Montgomery sidelined, Craig Reynolds will step into the Lions’ power-back function, however the majority of snaps will land on the ft of Jahmyr Gibbs. In Week 13, Gibbs ran 9 occasions for 97 yards (9.7 yards per carry) and was an issue for all of them day, which ought to favor the Lions on this weekend’s recreation.

Key 3: Be bodily on the LOS

Did it work?

Sure. As evidenced by their 194 dashing yards and just one sack taken by Jared Goff (on 35 passing makes an attempt) the Lions’ offensive line was sturdy.

What’s modified?

In opposition to the Packers, the Lions’ dashing yards had been all the way down to 111 dashing yards, however nonetheless solely allowed Goff to be sacked as soon as. In opposition to the Payments, it was a lot worse, because the Lions had been pushed round a lot of the recreation and hardly generated a lot on the bottom, solely gaining a complete of 48 dashing yards.

The Lions offensive line allowed simply 9 pressures the final time they performed the Bears, however they allowed 12 in opposition to the Packers, and an embarrassing 26 in opposition to the Payments.

Moreover, beginning left guard Graham Glasgow (knee) and heart Frank Ragnow (again) are each coping with accidents.

Changes?

The Lions’ offensive line, particularly the inside, must get again of their groove and quick. Specializing in the working recreation will definitely assist that, as will going through off in opposition to a Bears protection that may very well be with out their greatest defensive sort out in rookie Gervon Dexter.

Key 4: Take what’s accessible

Did it work?

Sure. Of the Lions 221 yards passing, 139 of them got here after the catch. The Lions took benefit of the Bears’ single-high protection and bend-don’t-break fashion of protection and obtained the ball into their ability gamers hand rapidly, letting the go to work.

What’s modified?

Nothing. The Bears nonetheless run the identical defensive scheme, so this needs to be a technique once more.

Changes?

Run this again, as a result of the Lions yards after the catch (YAC) recreation has been rolling. After producing 139 in opposition to the Bears, they gathered 149 vs. the Packers and 249 YAC in opposition to the Payments.

Key 5: Assault single-high protection with deep photographs

Did it work?

Not likely. The Lions ended up with six explosive performs within the passing recreation (receptions of 16+ yards) however they had been principally generated by YAC. In complete, they tried 4 passes of 20+ yards, finishing only one.

Right here’s a have a look at Goff’s distribution chart from week 13, courtesy of Subsequent Gen Stats:

What’s modified?

Nothing. The Bears nonetheless run the identical defensive scheme, so this needs to be a technique once more.

Changes?

The Lions’ success within the YAC recreation has restricted their want for the deep ball, however I’d be in favor of taking a deep shot to Jameson Williams early within the recreation and retaining that risk within the Bears’ minds.

Key 6: Ball safety

Did it work?

No. With an opportunity to place a ways between themselves and the Bears, Gibbs fumbled contained in the Bears’ 5-yard line, taking factors off the board and giving Chicago some confidence.

What’s modified?

The Lions have turned the ball over one time in every of the 2 video games since enjoying the Bears. Whereas Chicago didn’t flip the ball over vs. Detroit two weeks in the past, they’ve each misplaced and compelled one turnover within the video games since.

Changes?

The Lions want to wash up their errors right here. The turnover differential is just not monumental—they’re nonetheless the eighth-best in turnover margin within the NFL—however they’ve turned the ball over at crucial occasions in latest video games, which makes issues tougher than they should be.

Key 7: QB Comprise

Did it work?

Sure and no. They did restrict Caleb Williams to simply 4 dashing makes an attempt however he gained 39 yards. A 9.8 yards per rush is just not supreme, however once they held all different Bears’ rushers to 39 yards on 11 makes an attempt (3.5 YPA) that’s a stat line they’ll stay with.

What’s modified?

Within the two video games since Week 13, the Lions held Packers’ Jordan Like to 4 rushes for 23 yards (5.8 YPA) however let Buffalo’s Josh Allen cook dinner, with 11 rushes for 68 yards (6.2 YPA), together with two touchdowns.

Changes?

With the Lions go rush not performing of late, they really want to double down on setting the sting and creating comprise. Detroit had a giant problem with this final week in opposition to the Payments, so a refocused effort is so as.

Key 8: Know the RB on the sphere

Did it work?

Sure. D’Andre Swift was the one working again to try a rush in Week 13 and so they held him to three.5 yards per try. A few of that was by design, however this technique was additionally possible impacted by Roschon Johnson getting injured on his second snap of the sport.

What’s modified?

Johnson missed the earlier two video games recovering from damage, however he has been training in full this week and will return to the lineup.

Changes?

The Lions proceed to and will prioritize stopping the run.

“We cannot let these guys run the ball down our throat. We have to shut down the run game,” Campbell mentioned of Chicago’s offense.

With Johnson doubtlessly again within the fold, it’s price keeping track of him between the tackles, whereas Swift at all times seems to bounce it exterior. The Lions linebackers should be prepared for these variances between Chicago’s backs.

Key 9: Prep for D.J. Moore’s quick recreation YAC

Did it work?

No. Moore was closely focused in Week 13, as Williams seemed his approach a whopping 16 occasions, six greater than in some other recreation this season. Whereas Moore solely caught half of his targets (eight), he registered 97 yards and a landing.

What’s modified?

Within the two video games since, Moore’s targets have dropped however his effectivity has elevated. In each video games, he was focused eight occasions, catching six vs. the 49ers (49 yards) and all eight vs. the Vikings (46 yards). He additionally added three rushes in opposition to the Vikings (24 yards) after not trying a rush vs. the 49ers or Lions.

Changes?

Moore continues to be the Bears’ prime possibility on offense and the Lions will should be ready for the litany of how the Bears use him.

Key 10: Prep for “quick throws”

Did it work?

Sure. Within the first two video games since Thomas took over play calling duties, Williams was averaging 70.5% completion proportion with 285 passing yards per recreation, together with a yards per makes an attempt common of seven.3 yards. In opposition to the Lions, these numbers had been decreased to 51.3% completion proportion, 256 passing yards with 6.6 YPA.

What’s modified?

Williams’ success fee continues to say no. Within the two video games following Week 13, Williams is averaging 64.8% completion proportion, 162.5 passing yards per recreation, and 6.02 YPA.

Changes?

Williams seems just like the physicality of his rookie season is taking its toll on him. He’s been sacked 51 occasions (second most allowed within the NFL) and can wish to get the ball out of his palms rapidly. If the Lions can take away the shorter throws, whereas holding up in protection and permitting the defensive position to finally get strain, they’ll get Williams out of rhythm and off his recreation.