Tremendous Bowl LIX: Greatest prop bets for Eagles vs. Chiefs

Welcome to the betting angle, Tremendous Bowl version! Every week through the season, I gave out my three favourite wagers for that week’s New York Giants recreation. Properly, the Giants didn’t fairly make it to the large recreation this season, so we are able to’t wager on them. However don’t have any concern! The Tremendous Bowl provides a Vegas-sized buffet of wagering choices, from very plain vanilla bets on the purpose unfold, cash line, or recreation complete, to the completely ludicrous, like which coloration Gatorade shall be spilled on the profitable coach. There’s one thing for everybody.

The Tremendous Bowl garners motion like no different occasion. It doesn’t matter which groups are enjoying. As increasingly states permit the web wagering corporations to take bets from their residents, the deal with grows. In response to the American Gaming Affiliation, a report $1.25 billion was wagered on Tremendous Bowl LVIII final yr, they usually’re estimating that quantity to be round $1.4 billion for Tremendous Bowl LIX, if no more. As just lately as 2020, the overall deal with was $300 million. What we’re witnessing is explosive progress. Throw in all of the field swimming pools and bets between associates and who is aware of what the true complete is.

There are pages and pages of wagers supplied on the most important playing websites for Sunday’s huge recreation, which shall be held in New Orleans for the eleventh time. Normally, I give out three “best bets” per week, however the place’s the enjoyable in that when tons of of them are on provide? I’ll use FanDuel as my foundation for this text, and I gained’t advocate something with shorter odds than -135. To cite me, the place’s the enjoyable in that? I’m not going to the touch the foolish wagers (issues just like the coin flip, the size of the nationwide anthem, what number of occasions they present a sure pop star, bets in regards to the halftime present and commercials, who the MVP mentions first in his post-game interview, and so on.). I’m additionally not recommending any of the semi-silly ones like over-under on the uniform variety of the primary participant to attain a TD. In case you like betting on that stuff, be my visitor. I get it, it’s enjoyable. I feel you may get one thing like 11:1 on a parlay of Chiefs win + Travis Kelce proposing to Taylor Swift on the finish of the sport. For actual. That’s a fade for me, however you do you.

As for the sport itself, it’s a rematch from two years in the past (KC 38, PHI 35), so we’ve bought some current historical past to go on. The road opened at KC -1.5, with a complete of 48.5, and people numbers haven’t budged. I gained’t go into an excessive amount of evaluation in regards to the recreation itself, however I’ll say this: I feel the Eagles have extra expertise on each side of the ball and are deeper, however the line displays the Mahomes (and Reid/Spagnuolo) issue, and the air of inevitability that this Kansas Metropolis workforce has. They’ve set an NFL report by profitable 17 straight one-score video games, they usually’re higher at profitable shut video games than any workforce I’ve ever seen. Patrick Mahomes is an astounding 17-3 within the playoffs. That’s an 85% profitable proportion, towards what are by definition the league’s greatest groups. He’s in his fifth Tremendous Bowl, and he’s not but 30. He’s the primary QB to try this, and my guess is we’ll by no means see it once more.

So all of that’s the reason KC is favored on this recreation towards a extra proficient workforce as they chase the three-peat. The unfold bets are a stay-away for me. I can’t choose towards the Eagles as a result of I feel they’re the higher workforce, and I can’t choose towards Mahomes as a result of he’s Mahomes and it’s the playoffs. If I have been to wager the Eagles, I’d do it on the Moneyline (+102) somewhat than giving the juice (-115) whereas getting the purpose and a half. That looks like higher worth to me.

OK, let’s get to some wagers! All strains are from Fanduel, as of Wednesday, Feb. 5, at 9 p.m.

Hurts scores once more

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1. Jalen Hurts Anytime TD (-115). This line feels just a little too beneficiant. Since he turned the Eagles’ starter in 2021, Hurts has 55 dashing TDs in 66 begins. Within the playoffs, he has 9 dashing TDs in eight video games, together with three final week. If the Eagles have a snap contained in the 2-yard line, Hurts is scoring, and he might get a dashing TD from additional out than that. That is my single favourite wager of the weekend.

2. Patrick Mahomes OVER 5.5 dashing makes an attempt (-102). Because the video games get larger, Mahomes runs extra. It’s the way it goes with him. If KC is profitable and there are kneel-downs, you’ve bought a significantly better probability of this wager going over. Mahomes has 29 carries throughout his 4 Tremendous Bowl appearances, and towards the Eagles’ energetic cross rush, I can see him being compelled to take off extra. I like getting this prop at virtually even cash.

3. Jalen Hurts UNDER 211.5 passing yards (-110). Hurts props are throughout this column, and I really feel like he could be crucial participant on this recreation. This quantity feels a bit excessive to me, towards this protection. Hurts went over this quantity towards the Commanders within the NFC title recreation, however threw for lower than 135 yards in each the Wild Card and Divisional rounds.

4. Saquon Barkley UNDER 109.5 dashing yards (-110). This below frightens me just a little, as Barkley has terrorized defenses all season and averages greater than this complete per recreation. Extra Sunday scaries: This Tremendous Bowl is being performed on his twenty eighth birthday. Can’t you see Saquon going for 225 yards and a number of TDs and strolling away with the Tremendous Bowl MVP on his special occasion, because the Eagles romp? Positive you possibly can, and so can I, and in his final two video games he has three runs of 60-plus yards. So why do I just like the below? Properly, KC hasn’t allowed a 100-yard rusher all season, they usually additionally haven’t allowed one of their final 18 playoff video games. A buck-ten in a Tremendous Bowl is so much, even for Barkley. If he will get dinged up or the Eagles fall behind, the over shall be robust.

5. Dallas Goedert OVER 50.5 receiving yards (-110). Goedert has come on through the playoffs (15 catches for 183 yards and a rating throughout three video games), and I’ve a sense he’ll be an enormous a part of Philadelphia’s recreation plan on Sunday. The Chiefs’ protection is hard towards the run and has good numbers towards vast receivers, however they allowed the fourth most catches and essentially the most receiving yards to opposing tight ends through the common season. It’s the one place they defend poorly.

6. Each groups to transform a fourth down (-124). Even essentially the most informal NFL fan is aware of that groups are going for it on fourth down greater than ever earlier than. There’s no tomorrow for both workforce, so don’t count on Andy Reid or Nick Sirianni to play it conservative. The Eagles have an unstoppable play for fourth-and-short and transformed fourth downs at 73.3% this season (third greatest within the NFL). The Chiefs have been proper behind them in these rankings, at 70%.

7. Xavier Worthy OVER 5.5 dashing yards (-122). For the second straight yr, a rookie receiver has emerged for the Chiefs down the stretch and into the playoffs. Worthy’s utilization is method up during the last month or so, and he has gone over this dashing complete in 4 of the final 5 video games. I count on Reid to scheme up a couple of runs for the speedster. The juice isn’t nice, however the line is tantalizingly low.

8. Each groups to make a 33+ yard FG (-104). Positive, why not? The sport is being performed in a dome, and there must be loads of factors. Jake Elliott was shaky within the Divisional spherical towards the Rams, however has made loads of huge kicks, and Harrison Butker is cash.

Xavier Worthy extends for the rating

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OK, sufficient with the safer bets. Need a couple of longer pictures? Listed here are some wagers I like at +150 or higher:

1. Xavier Worthy Anytime TD (+150). Worthy scored within the AFC Championship recreation, his ninth TD of the season. He’s additionally scored in three of his final 4 video games performed. Worthy has emerged because the Chiefs’ prime vast receiver during the last month or so, and can also be a risk to attain on a rush. The chances really feel honest on this one.

2. Eagles to have extra INTs than KC (+210). Neither protection had a choose within the Tremendous Bowl two years in the past, and neither QB has thrown one in these playoffs. So it is a little bit of a longshot as each QBs are fairly cautious with the ball, and also you lose this wager on a tie. Hurts has been criticized lots as a passer, however one factor he does do is shield the soccer. He’s solely thrown 5 picks in 18 video games performed this season. Mahomes has 11 in 19 video games. On the flip aspect, each groups had 13 picks through the common season. I’ve just a little extra religion in Philadelphia’s secondary developing with an enormous play.

3. A.J. Brown to have longest reception within the recreation (+330). Only a hunch right here. I can see Brown making one huge play.

4. Jalen Hurts to attain 2+ TDs (+550). See above. He scored three final week, and this looks like respectable odds contemplating that every one you want is 2 performs from the one-yard line to money at higher than 5:1.

5. Eagles win first half/Chiefs win recreation (+700). The Chiefs have gained back-to-back Tremendous Bowls, they usually trailed by a landing at halftime final yr and by 10 factors at halftime towards these similar Eagles two years in the past. They’re constructed to win shut video games, and to return again. They’ve been right here earlier than and gained’t panic in the event that they fall behind. This wager isn’t more likely to hit, however at +700, I’m in.

Reid and Mahomes: Chasing immortality

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I’m going to cease right here. There are most likely 10 extra wagers that I like, however that is greater than sufficient. Benefit from the recreation, and the meals and the drink, and good luck along with your Tremendous Bowl wagers!