Ultimate Contract Extension Projections For Bucs’ 2022 Draft Class | Pewter Report

The Bucs must be busy this offseason. And never simply with exterior strikes.

Very like final 12 months, the workforce may have homegrown expertise to lock up. However not like final 12 months, time is much less of an element. Sure, star large receiver Chris Godwin is a pending free agent. However past him, the precedence will seemingly be positioned on younger expertise that aren’t pending free brokers, however nonetheless eligible for extensions.

Efficient right this moment, members of the 2022 NFL Draft class are eligible to signal extensions with their workforce.

From the primary decide in Jaguars DE Travon Walker to Mr. Irrelevant in 49ers QB Brock Purdy, we may see loads of offers over the months forward.

Three Members Of Bucs’ 2022 Draft Class Doubtless To Get Extensions

Bucs assistant GM Mike Greenberg – Picture by: Cliff Welch/PR

Proper deal with Luke Goedeke, tight finish Cade Otton and cornerback Zyon McCollum are all members of the Bucs’ 2022 draft class who’ve an excellent likelihood to ink new offers within the offseason.

Goedeke has turn out to be the last word story, blossoming into top-of-the-line proper tackles within the NFL. Otton has improved from a borderline starter into top-of-the-line move-blocking tight ends within the league. And through a four-week stretch the place the workforce was with out Godwin and Mike Evans, Otton grew to become the workforce’s main weapon within the passing sport and shouldered the load nicely. McCollum began the 12 months enjoying like a premier nook earlier than falling off in the direction of the tip of the season.

All three must be thought of part of the Bucs roster plans for the following 3-5 years and Tampa Bay can be clever to lock them up sooner quite than later as a result of the wage cap solely goes up – and their respective worth tags will seemingly go up, too. With the common season concluded I can now make closing contract projections for every. There’s a likelihood that anybody or extra of those gamers may have a narrative-driven postseason that drives their costs up a bit, however I really feel comfy that these projections will probably be near their true worth at this level.

RT Luke Goedeke

Bucs RT Luke Goedeke – Picture by: Cliff Welch/PR

Luke Goedeke has the best chance to get an early extension and would be the costliest. He performs an important place of the three. Take into account that the 5 highest-paid offensive tackles within the NFL have a median APY of just below $27 million per 12 months. The highest 5 tight ends common $15.375 million per 12 months and the highest 5 cornerbacks common just below $22 million per 12 months.

Goedeke’s 2024 has been stellar. Of the 64 tackles with no less than 350 cross blocking snaps, Goedeke ranks seventh in strain price allowed (3.14%) and tied for eighth in cross block effectivity (98.0). He has allowed simply three sacks, and no quarterback hits all season. And that is on the heels of a really stable 2023 when he efficiently transitioned again to his pure place of proper deal with.

The projection system that my companion, Kyle DeDimicantanio, and I developed undertaking Goedeke for a $20 million APY on his extension. Nevertheless it’s at all times good to take a look at comparable gamers to create a real baseline for a deal. Our system recognized Brian O’Neill’s 2021 contract with the Vikings as considered one of his closest comps, so let’s check out the 2 side-by-side to see if they’re an excellent match.

O’Neill would appear to be an excellent comp for Goedeke to submit. O’Neill received a five-year extension for $92.5 million, averaging $18.5 million per 12 months with $22,576,118 absolutely assured. The Bucs have proven a willingness to do five-year extensions for tackles, as evidenced by simply such a deal for left deal with Tristan Wirfs final 12 months.

If Goedeke had been to efficiently argue this comp, he would search for a cap-inflation adjustment that might tick his APY from O’Neill’s $18.5 million to $25 million per 12 months. This is able to be significantly larger than the $20 million I’ve him projected for and would make him the second-highest paid proper deal with within the NFL, trailing solely Penei Sewell of the Detroit Lions.

Whereas I’m assured this will probably be a path Goedeke’s illustration takes, I believe the Bucs will have the ability to efficiently argue some newer comps as a counter. As a matter of truth, I believe they might have a look at the latest early extension signed by a proper deal with as a place to begin for negotiations. Spencer Brown and the Buffalo Payments signed an extension proper originally of the 2024 season and there are some similarities between he and Goedeke which may make for an excellent comparability.

Bucs RT Luke Goedeke – Picture by: Cliff Welch/PR

Each tackles had horrendous rookie seasons solely to bounce again into stable or higher gamers by 12 months three. However there are key variations that ought to work in Goedeke’s favor. Whereas each gamers had been Day 2 picks, Goedeke was a second-round decide whereas Brown was chosen within the third spherical.

And Goedeke has had higher grading, and a decrease strain price allowed over each your entire three-year pattern as nicely in his platform 12 months. All of this can bode nicely for him getting greater than Brown’s $18 million APY.

Simply working off of that quantity and inflating for a wage cap enhance from this 12 months’s $255.4 million to subsequent 12 months’s seemingly $275 million would push the supply to $19.33 million per 12 months. Add within the draft and efficiency premiums and I’m assured the Bucs would are available round a $20 million per 12 months supply. This would go away the 2 sides about $5 million aside on the APY.

The place I believe the compromise is available in is Tampa Bay providing larger ensures than O’Neill acquired whereas Goedeke provides them yet another 12 months than the 4 Brown signed for. The Bucs absolutely assured 37% of Wirfs’ extension and an identical supply to Goedeke would assist offset a number of the APY haggling.

The distinction between O’Neill’s 24.4% assure and a 35% assure over 5 years may very well be as a lot as an $11.5 million distinction. If Goedeke is keen to return slightly additional on the APY distinction and provides the Bucs the fifth 12 months they’re seemingly in search of, and Tampa Bay is keen to offer an identical assured construction as they did on the Wirfs deal, I may see the 2 assembly someplace on this ballpark.

5 years, $107.5 million ($21.5 million APY), $37.5 million absolutely assured

The Bucs would seemingly create a rolling assure construction much like Wirfs’ that might finally assure as much as about $70 million.

TE Cade Otton

Bucs TE Cade Otton – Picture by: USA Immediately

Cade Otton was on his approach to the best season of his profession earlier than a late-season knee harm robbed him of the ultimate three video games of the 2024 common season. Nonetheless, he has produced 1,659 yards and 11 touchdowns over the previous three seasons. These numbers rank extra favorably on tight finish lists than you may suppose. For instance, Otton is thirteenth in receiving yards amongst all tight ends since getting into the NFL.

The tight finish place is due for a market adjustment and the following wave of offers are prone to be larger than those that got here earlier than them, so any workforce proactively engaged on getting forward of this adjustment will avoid wasting cash. Our system tasks Otton for an APY of just below $13 million, together with his three closest comps from current seasons as Noah Fant in 2024, Evan Engram in 2022 and Cole Kmet in 2023.

These three gamers’ APY’s common out to 4.66% of the wage cap at time of signing and we now have Otton proper according to that estimation. Fant is the latest comp, and has barely higher receiving stats, however shouldn’t be the blocker Otton is. Plus, the tight finish market is ready for an upward adjustment this low season. I count on the Bucs and Otton to return in on an extension that appears like this.

4 years, $52 million ($13 million APY), $18.5 million absolutely assured

Much like Luke Goedeke, count on a rolling assure construction that might take whole ensures to $30 million.

CB Zyon McCollum

Bucs CB Zyon McCollum – Picture by: USA Immediately

Given his late-season hunch, I’m less-convinced than ever that Zyon McCollum will signal an extension. I’m not saying it received’t occur. However I’m saying there’s a stable likelihood it may not.

Primarily based on his early season play, I conjectured McCollum may very well be primed for a deal that approached had an APY of $20 million per 12 months. However that quantity is now off the desk.

I’ll additionally word that cornerback, together with linebacker, are the 2 most troublesome positions to undertaking. With that stated, I believe the Bucs may nonetheless wish to get in forward of one other positional market reset that’s on the precipice of occurring.

The cornerback market goes to blow up with elite gamers Sauce Gardner, Derek Stingley Jr. and Trent McDuffie prone to get new offers. Add them to current offers for Deommodore Lenoir, Jalen Ramsey, Patrick Surtain Jr., A.J. Terrell, Tyson Campbell and L’Jarius Sneed and also you get a rising tide that can raise all boats.

A $14.5 million APY would symbolize a premium over McCollum’s whole physique of labor so far. However it will additionally symbolize a big worth over the glimpses he confirmed early this 12 months and what he’s succesful at his greatest. If he had been to place collectively a whole season like he confirmed weeks 1-9 of 2024, he may very well be taking a look at an APY of $21-22.5 million per 12 months in 2026. And that will probably be with him set to turn out to be a free agent.

The 2025 franchise tag for cornerback is projected to be north of $20 million per 12 months. The 2026 quantity will solely be larger. An extension at $14.5 million may present the Bucs with big financial savings on what McCollum may turn out to be. It’s a little bit of a threat. However by taking it now, Tampa Bay can fold a lot of the assured cash into 2025 and 2026 giving them cheap outs only one 12 months out from his unique free company date.

Trying on the simply platform seasons listed here are the three closest gamers we discovered to McCollum’s 2024 trying on the highest correlating metrics.

That’s a formidable checklist of corners. All had a extra complete profession main into their contracts than McCollum, however I believe this illustrates the upside that McCollum presents. When contemplating his complete physique of labor since being drafted, McCollum’s comps turn out to be extra common than elite.

For those who have a look at the typical contracts from these two lists, adjusted for the seemingly wage cap in 2025, you get an APY of $21.8 million on the excessive facet and $8.9 million on the low. The midpoint of these two numbers is $15.35 million, which is a bit north of the $14.5 million I urged. I got here in decrease at $14.5 million to symbolize McCollum’s greatest efficiency being a smaller pattern dimension.

The ultimate deal, as I see it will be:

Three Years, $43.5 million ($14.5 million), $24 million absolutely assured

Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb and Bucs CB Zyon McCollum – Picture by: USA Immediately

This deal can be simply south of Carlton Davis III’s three-year, $44.5 million contract that he signed with the Bucs in 2022. And that’s why I believe this contract isn’t very seemingly. When Davis signed his deal, he was paid as a High 10 nook.

If McCollum and the Bucs had been to finalize this proposed contract, he would slot in at 14th. And that might shortly transfer down the leaderboard with all the aforementioned gamers who’re about to signal mega contracts. McCollum will most likely wish to give 2025 a shot to succeed in the elite standing and money in at over $20 million per 12 months.

The one method I see this getting accomplished is that if McCollum desires to safe the assured cash, which is why I urged the three-year time period. It permits McCollum to search for an extension after the 2027 season or hit free company in 2028 nonetheless beneath 30.