Both the Netherlands and France made winning, if not entirely convincing, starts at Euro 2024.
On Friday, they face off in a heavyweight clash that could go some way to deciding who tops Group D.
Ronald Koeman’s Oranje had Wout Weghorst to thank as they fought back to beat Poland 2-1 in their opening match, and they will hope the potential absence of Kylian Mbappe gives them the upper hand in Leipzig.
Mbappe’s availability is “uncertain” after he suffered a broken nose during Les Bleus’ nervy 1-0 victory over Austria, with the forward set to be fitted with a protective mask ahead of a potential return.
How will the tournament favourites cope if Mbappe does miss out? Here, we delve into the Opta data to preview Friday’s game.
Des idées de masques ?
— Kylian Mbappé (@KMbappe) June 17, 2024
What’s expected?
Despite the question marks over Mbappe’s availability, France are favourites to make it two wins from two games.
The Opta supercomputer gives them a 52.3 per cent chance of victory to the Netherlands’ 24.4 per cent, with 23.3 per cent of simulations finishing level.
This will be the fourth time the teams have faced off at the Euros. France triumphed on penalties in the 1996 quarter-finals, but the Netherlands have since won two group-stage encounters, 3-2 in 2000 and 4-1 in 2008.
France have, however, won seven of their last eight matches against the Oranje in all competitions, the exception being a 2-0 defeat in the UEFA Nations League in November 2018.
100 – France recorded their 100th win under Didier Deschamps this evening (D30 L24), by far their best total with the same coach (41 with Michel Hidalgo and Raymond Domenech). Boss. #AUTFRA pic.twitter.com/eIYVhN8cc4
— OptaJean (@OptaJean) June 17, 2024
If recent history is anything to go by, we should expect to get a victor. Only four of the previous 30 matches between the teams have ended in a draw, with France posting 15 victories to the Netherlands’ 11.
Excluding penalty shoot-outs, the Oranje have only lost one of their last 17 major tournament matches (World Cup/Euros), going down 2-0 to Czechia at Euro 2020 (12 wins, four draws).
They lost four successive games before this run began – all three group-stage matches at Euro 2012 and the 2010 World Cup final versus Spain.
France, meanwhile, could win their opening two games at a Eur
