Vikings @ Lions: Breaking Down the Matchup

Just some days now till the Minnesota Vikings journey to Ford Subject for a showdown with the Detroit Lions for the NFC North Division title, the highest seed within the NFC playoffs, and all that goes with that. Given the high-profile nature of the sport, there are not any scarcity of nationwide previews of the sport, and I assumed I’d embrace a few of them right here.

However first a high-level evaluation of what’s modified with the Vikings and Lions since their first matchup in week seven.

What’s Modified Since Week Seven

The largest change since week seven has been the accidents the Lions have suffered, significantly defensively. Offensively the Lions are as sturdy as ever, however defensively the underside has fallen out.

From week 1-12, the Lions’ defensive EPA/play allowed was second-best within the league behind the Vikings. However from week 13-17, the Lions’ defensive EPA/play allowed has been the worst within the NFL. That’s mirrored within the Lions’ Rolling EPA chart beneath.

As you’ll be able to see, simply previous play quantity 800 for the season (roughly week 13), the Lions’ defensive EPA (grey dotted line) begins to go up dramatically, which implies their defensive effectivity was quickly getting worse (unfavourable EPA numbers are higher defensively). Offensively there was a much less dramatic dip earlier than it returned to its earlier degree. However you’ll be able to see from the strong blue line how the Lions’ internet EPA declined dramatically shortly after play quantity 800 and has remained close to zero since.

The Lions defensive decline is mirrored of their defensive DVOA metric as nicely.

Like defensive EPA, defensive DVOA numbers are higher once they’re unfavourable. As you’ll be able to see, the Lions protection since week 13 is dramatically totally different in DVOA phrases than the primary twelve weeks of the season. DVOA is supposed to be a share relative to “average” so the Lions protection has gone from considerably higher than common over the primary twelve weeks of the season to considerably beneath common since then.

The decline of the Lions’ protection additionally reveals up of their Whole DVOA metric, just like their Internet EPA metric.

As you’ll be able to see, the Lions’ Whole DVOA is dramatically decrease since week 13 in comparison with weeks 1-12. The truth is, the Lions’ common recreation Whole DVOA was 48.7% from weeks 1-12, however simply 4.7% since week 13.

The Vikings, against this have proven a special dynamic over the course of the season in EPA and DVOA phrases.

From the Vikings’ Rolling EPA chart above, you’ll be able to see they began the season sturdy, significantly defensively, then dropped dramatically earlier than returning to close their early season highs and have roughly remained at that degree. Nonetheless, you’ll discover that offensive EPA has proven a robust optimistic trendline since its low level early within the season whereas the protection has been extra up and down for the reason that sturdy begin to the season.

Trying on the Vikings’ week-to-week efficiency in Whole DVOA phrases beneath, when you break up the season into fourths, the primary fourth of the season was very sturdy, the second mediocre, the third constructing again, and the fourth extra different however persevering with an upward pattern.

Total, the Vikings enter week 18 coming off one in all their finest video games in Whole DVOA phrases towards the Packers and trending in a optimistic route in Internet EPA phrases. In the meantime the Lions enter week 18 at a low level in Internet EPA and have grow to be one thing just like the Bengals within the sense that they want their offense to hold the crew because the protection is limping into this recreation bruised and battered after struggling so many accidents.

Within the week seven matchup at US Financial institution stadium, the Vikings punted 3 times, had two drives finish with the half and recreation, and had three discipline targets along with two touchdowns and an interception.

In the meantime the Vikings’ protection pressured the Lions to punt 4 occasions, had a 4th down cease, a fumble returned for a landing, whereas giving up 4 touchdowns and a discipline purpose.

My guess is that if the Vikings’ protection can have an analogous efficiency (forcing 4 punts, a 4th down cease and a turnover) the Vikings’ offense will be capable to put up extra factors than week seven and result in a Vikings’ victory Sunday night time.

Nationwide Vikings-Lions Previews

Examine the Mic (Steve Palazzolo & Sam Monson, previously with PFF)

FTN (Aaron Schatz the DVOA Man and Mike Tanier)

PFF

Professional Soccer Speak

Clear Pocket

Mina Kimes – ESPN