Week 15 Colts Defensive Rankings and Evaluation:

Every week throughout the season, I will likely be strolling by means of the info from the earlier Colts recreation and analyzing the numbers to kind a kind of “what happened” narrative, in addition to evaluating the Colts in opposition to all different groups within the league. For a glossary of the stats listed, reference Season Stats. Because of Professional Soccer Reference, NFL.com, Soccer Outsiders, and the nflFastR challenge for being superior sources of weekly knowledge.

Opposite to the narrative of momentum killing the Colts gamers, the Indy protection really performed properly all recreation in opposition to the Broncos. On paper, 31 factors looks as if so much to surrender, however 7 of these factors got up by the offense and 17 extra have been yielded off of brief fields because of offensive turnovers and poor particular groups protection.

The Colts restricted the Denver offense to underneath 200 yards whole and solely 13 first downs for a 56.5% Drive Success Fee, which places the protection within the 92nd percentile.

The cumulative EPA per play chart beneath reveals how properly the Colts offense performed after surrendering the primary Denver landing (play 23). The graph continues to climb all through the sport (up is sweet) by no means stalling even after J.T.’s fumble, which occurred within the offensive sequence proper after the crimson dot.

TEAM TOTALS

(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season).

Mouseover for definitions: Adj PPD,

Workforce PPG,

Off PPG,

Yds,

P/R%,

DSR,

yds/srs,

Strt Fld,

xOPPD,

yds/ply,

EPA/ply,

adj TSR,

1st/ply,

Pen 1st/ Yds,

3DC,

third ytg,

Expl Plys,

TO,

TOP%

Factors per drive ranks the protection solely seventeenth however that’s biased by Denver’s 2nd greatest beginning discipline place. By DSR, the Colts’ protection ranks 4th, which matches the 4th lowest defensive success fee (adj TSR), as Indy gave up solely 3.2 yards per play, the bottom of any protection for the week.

The Colts restricted explosive performs and earned 3 takeaways. It’s unlucky that the offense saved making an attempt to offer Denver factors, as a result of that is one of the best the protection has regarded in a very long time.

On the yr, the protection jumps 2 spots to 14th in PPD and 18th in DSR. DVOA has them proper in the course of that at sixteenth.

PASS TOTALS

(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season).

Mouseover definitions: EPA/db,

PSR,

Cmp,

Att,

Yds,

TD,

Int,

Sk,

Sk Y,

1st/db,

ny/d,

cmp %,

aDOT,

cpoe,

YBC,

YAC,

20+ #/Yd

Via the air, the Colts gave up the fifteenth lowest EPA per dropback, however solely the tenth lowest Passing Success Fee. Bo Nix was capable of money in on these brief fields and managed 3 TDs, which helped elevate his worth so much greater than his common play.

He had the fifth lowest internet yards per dropback, which led to the 2nd lowest conversion fee (1st/d). His completion fee was virtually 9% beneath anticipated (4th lowest cpoe) and he managed only one explosive play. As well as, the Colts picked him 3 instances and restricted him to 121 internet yards.

Wit this effort, the Colts passing protection jumps 3 spots to 14th in EPA/d however solely twenty second in PSR. The reality might be someplace within the center. DVOA says 18th, so let’s go together with that.

RUSH TOTALS

(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season).

Mouseover definitions:
adj RSR,

Yds,

Automobile,

TD,

1st,

Fum Misplaced,

RSR,

1st/c,

YPC,

10+ #/Yd,

third,

3DC,

epa/c,

The run protection lastly got here out to play once more. Giving up 2.1 yards per carry (2nd lowest) they restricted Denver to the eighth lowest conversion fee and the tenth lowest EPA per carry. Adjusting for scenario, provides the Colts the third greatest speeding protection of the week (aRSR).

Add that to the earlier weeks numbers and also you get a season rank of 14th in defensive adj RSR for the Colts. There’s a log jam of groups with related aRSR surrounding that Colts, so it doesn’t shock my that DVOA ranks them nineteenth.

CONCLUSION & LOOK AHEAD

Denver got here into the sport 18th in offense (PPD), in order that they weren’t horrible. It’s good to see the Colts push round somebody who wasn’t a push-over.

The Titans, nonetheless, are a pushover rating thirtieth in PPD and twenty seventh in Drive Success Fee. They lead the league in turnovers and earn the seventh fewer whole yards per recreation.

With the benching of Will Levis it’s robust to know what to anticipate from the Titans’ passing. Levis was horrible at thirtieth in EPA/d and twenty ninth in PSR, however Mason Rudolph is a back-up for a cause. I’m not actual certain that he will likely be an enchancment.

Tennessee has struggled on the bottom too, incomes the tenth worst adj Rush Success Fee. They’ve tended to be a run-first crew (twenty third in early down passing) and I believe with the QB change, they are going to be much more run-firstier.

DVOA ranks the Titans thirty first in passing and twenty third in speeding, so everyone seems to be in settlement that they simply aren’t an excellent offense. Hopefully, the Colts protection we noticed this previous week makes a re-appearance.