Week 15 Colts Offensive Rankings and Evaluation:

Every week throughout the season, I might be strolling by means of the info from the earlier Colts recreation and analyzing the numbers to type a form of “what happened” narrative, in addition to evaluating the Colts in opposition to all different groups within the league. For a glossary of the stats listed, reference Season Stats. Due to Professional Soccer Reference, NFL.com, Soccer Outsiders, and the nflFastR challenge for being superior sources of weekly knowledge.

It began out so nicely. After again to again opening drives that yielded 10 factors, the Colts offense appeared unstoppable in opposition to Denver. Sadly, the remainder of the sport occurred. On the 13 subsequent Indy drives, 10 of them earned 20 yards or much less and the Colts might solely muster one other 3 factors off of brief area gifted by a defensive takeaway.

Merely put, the offense was inept. They turned the ball over 5 instances and once they weren’t giving the ball away, they couldn’t transfer it down the sector. They completed with a 56.2% Drive Success Charge (seventh percentile).

I do know this was a really emotional recreation for lots of Colts’ followers, however let’s put the emotions apart and take a look at to have a look at what truly occurred on this recreation. For the folks that assume J.T.s fumble was a “momentum-changer”, please take a look at the 4 drives previous to that occasion, the place the Colts averaged 8.5 yards per drive and added in a turnover for good measure. Even on the fumble drive, it solely consisted of a 6 yard move and a 15-yard penalty earlier than J.T. headed for the endzone. It’s not just like the Colts had been driving the ball down Denver’s throat as much as the purpose of the fumble.

This chart reveals the cumulative EPA per play by play after the Colts scored on their opening drive. The pink dot is the fumble. Does that basically appear like an inflection level? If there was a change of momentum, it occurred approach earlier than that play.

TEAM TOTALS

(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season).

Mouseover for definitions: Adj PPD,

Crew PPG,

Off PPG,

Yds,

P/R%,

DSR,

yds/srs,

Strt Fld,

xOPPD,

yds/ply,

EPA/ply,

adj TSR,

1st/ply,

Pen 1st/ Yds,

3DC,

third ytg,

Expl Plys,

TO,

TOP%

The pick-6 (lat 6? fumble 6?) counts as adverse Factors per Drive, so the Colts earned a complete of 6 web factors on 15 drives for a final place end of 0.4 PPD. That pairs nicely with a thirtieth DSR.

There’s no actual story to inform right here. The thirtieth success charge (adj TSR) reveals that the workforce simply persistently didn’t earn optimistic worth performs. That they had a superb variety of explosive performs, however couldn’t keep away from errors to money these in for factors (turnovers, penalties).

On the yr, this efficiency drops the offense right down to twenty fifth place in PPD and thirtieth in DSR. I imply . . . ** sigh **.

PASS TOTALS

(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season).

Mouseover definitions: EPA/db,

PSR,

Cmp,

Att,

Yds,

TD,

Int,

Sk,

Sk Y,

1st/db,

ny/d,

cmp %,

aDOT,

cpoe,

YBC,

YAC,

20+ #/Yd

The thirtieth EPA per dropback was closely pushed by Richardson’s 2 picks and Mitchell’s fumble. However even Go Success Charge, which counts these merely as 3 failed performs finally ends up with a thirtieth rating. So, not solely did the move recreation characteristic overly adverse performs, however the “normal” performs had been persistently dangerous as nicely.

Once more, no actual hidden story right here. The Colts had the worst conversion charge (1st/d), however a few explosive move performs bumped the web yards per dropback as much as twenty sixth. Yay!

On the yr, Colts passing is twenty fourth in EPA/d and thirtieth in PSR. Significantly, how have we gained 6 video games?

RUSH TOTALS

(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season).

Mouseover definitions:
adj RSR,

Yds,

Automotive,

TD,

1st,

Fum Misplaced,

RSR,

1st/c,

YPC,

10+ #/Yd,

third,

3DC,

epa/c,

The run recreation was higher, however nonetheless not nice. The goal-line fumble and the lateral turnover TD nearly insured a disastrous EPA per carry (thirty first), however Indy managed just a few first downs for a twenty first ranked conversion charge (1st/c).

General, I give them a twentieth rank for the week and a twenty first rank within the yr.

CONCLUSION & LOOK AHEAD

I want I might say this was by far the worst Colts’ efficiency of the yr, however I’m unsure that’s true. It in all probability is, however there are some robust contenders. That is the 4th recreation that the offense has earned 10 or fewer web factors to go alongside together with 4 video games with <60% Drive Success Charge. You understand how many different groups have managed that feat? Carolina & Cleveland. That’s our peer group.

On the brilliant aspect there are solely 3 extra video games to endure.

The following protection that the Colts will attempt to embarrass themselves in entrance of is the Tennessee Titans, who surrender the seventh most Factors per Drive to opponents. That quantity is mostly a mirage although, because the Titans yield the twelfth smallest Drive Success Charge and the fifth fewest yards per play. Opponents have managed to attain by having the ninth finest beginning area place, however DVOA ranks Tennessee because the twelfth finest protection and I’ll agree with that.

In opposition to the move, they provide up common EPA per dropback (seventeenth) and restrict opponent success (fifteenth opponent PSR). They don’t surrender lots of first downs or yards (tenth 1st/d, sixth ny/d), however they don’t get to the QB a lot (twenty sixth sck%). If AR can prolong performs, he might discover some success.

On the bottom, they’re about common (sixteenth EPA/d, seventeenth aRSR), so there may be hope our run recreation can take maintain.