Week 15 Colts’ Opposing QB: An evaluation of Bo Nix

Due to the nflFastR undertaking, Professional Soccer Focus and NFL NextGen Stats for the well timed sources of information.

For these of you new to this, I’ll publish key QB stats every week judging how nicely the upcoming opponent QB has carried out. Sure, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling impression these numbers however they’re primarily QB measures. I’ll most likely modify the charts all through the season. Commentary will likely be temporary however be at liberty to let me know within the feedback that stats aren’t the whole lot. (click on charts for bigger view).

After the Bronocs determined to pay Pittsburgh $38M to take Russell Wilson off their palms, they discovered themselves with out a beginning QB. Enter first spherical draft decide Bo Nix. After 13 begins, Nix finds himself on an 8-5 crew that’s within the hunt for a wildcard spot.

For people who consider wins are a QB stat, then that should imply he’s fairly good. For people who consider that solely movie examine reveals how good a QB is, then you’ll have to go watch his 13 video games (and possibly all the opposite NFL video games for reference). For everybody else, I can let you know what the numbers say.

HOW WELL?

There’s a fairly clear pattern that Nix has been enhancing since day 1. His EPA effectivity has risen from the underside of the league to being above common in 4 of his final 5 video games. He’s getting an increasing number of yards per dropback and that’s leading to extra first downs.

He’s nonetheless removed from nice, however his final 7 video games have been extra good than unhealthy.

HOW FAR?

His passing depth is everywhere. On the entire it’s about league common, however he has not been afraid to throw the ball deep. His depth on completions has been trending up.

TO WHO?

Broncos receiving has been the Courtland Sutton present. He has greater than twice the variety of yards and targets of some other move catcher. Working Again Javonte Williams has been an everyday outlet incomes extra targets than the Denver #2- #4 vast receivers.

Despite the fact that Williams is focused so much, they’re low worth completions.

HOW ACCURATE?

Nix’s accuracy has usually been poor, however just lately he had some good video games. He’s not hitting on the super-deep throws (26+ yards), however he has been good within the 21-25 yard vary.

HOW FAST?

His time to throw was rising and out of hand till the previous couple of video games. A few of these video games may be defined by passing depth, however usually he’s holding the ball too lengthy.

TO WHERE?

He doesn’t actually favor both aspect of the sphere and he’s not a lot of a deep ball menace total.

DASHBOARD & CONCLUSION

(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season).

The Denver run recreation has been OK they usually run a balanced offense (sixteenth arsr, seventeenth edp), however thus far, opponent passing defenses haven’t been excellent (twenty eighth opd).
ESPN says the Broncos’ O-line is #1 in Go Block Win Charge and it exhibits as Nix has not been pressured a lot in any respect despite the fact that he holds the ball a very long time (twenty eighth pr%, sixth ttt).
Though he’s not afraid to throw it deep, his total depth of goal is nearly league common with a under common depth of completion (fifteenth adot, twenty fourth ay/c). Principally, he’s hitting a variety of check-downs and lacking the 25+ yarders.
His under common accuracy and late throws are resulting in poor yac numbers from his receivers (18th yac, twenty eighth yacoe).
Beneath common completion fee on brief completions with little yac unsurprisingly yields unhealthy yards per try (twenty seventh ypa).
On the plus-side for Nix, he is superb at utilizing his legs or throwing the ball away to keep away from sacks (tenth scr%, eleventh ta%, twenty ninth sck%).
Relative to the little stress he faces, he abandons too many move makes an attempt (sixteenth aa%), however as a result of he can run and makes good selections beneath stress, he limits the injury (eighth yards per deserted try). His 6.0 web yards per try ranks twenty third within the league, which isn’t good however it’s higher than his YPA rank.
As a result of he has poor yardage effectivity, he’s unable to maneuver the chains nicely (twenty sixth 1st), though once they do get shut sufficient, he’s competent at getting touchdowns (fifteenth td%).
He doesn’t flip the ball over a lot (twenty sixth to%), which helps increase his total effectivity to nineteenth in EPA per dropback. Nonetheless, his a lot decrease twenty fifth rank in Passer Success Charge exhibits that he’s not constant and may very well be due for a regression until he will get higher play to play.

Nix is a younger QB that struggled early, however has proven constant development all through the season. It’s powerful to nail down who he’s but, however during the last half of his video games, I’d put him in the course of the pack of starters.

Denver’s passing recreation is fairly 1-dimensional. Nix isn’t discovering receivers open so much and so he regularly resorts to check-downs. For those who can hold Sutton contained, then the principle menace is Nix making a play together with his legs. He’s poor beneath stress, however with the Denver O-line, he’s hardly ever pressured. It could be sufficient to verify Nix can’t discover an edge and canopy routes lengthy sufficient to pressure a check-down.