What we learn about Matthew Stafford’s future thus far

The first dialog surrounding the week on the NFL Mix will likely be what are the Los Angeles Rams going to do with quarterback Matthew Stafford. At this level, there are solely two paths ahead — both prolong him and provides him a pay elevate with extra assured cash or commerce him. No matter path the Rams take will likely be a dedication to the now or to their subsequent period of gamers.

Whereas it might appear so simple as, “Just pay Stafford whatever he wants,” it truly is much more difficult. Stafford is a 37-year previous quarterback and historical past for quarterbacks nearing the age of 40 hasn’t been good. There’s one exception which is Tom Brady who performed at a excessive degree till age 45. It’s not life like to additionally count on the identical from Stafford.

Nonetheless, the Rams do appear to have a two-year window if Stafford have been to stay the group’s beginning quarterback. This was a group that was a accomplished go away from internet hosting the NFC Championship Sport.

Right here’s the very fact of the state of affairs. Negotiations within the NFL are likely to get messy. One facet goes to push a narrative whereas the opposite pushes one other. There are going to be a whole lot of totally different experiences and issues which are stated. The very best factor to do is to sift via these experiences and attempt to discover some frequent denominators.

The place this all began

The very best place to begin with a narrative is true on the very starting. It’s been well-documented at this level that the place to begin of the Stafford contract negotiations date again to final 12 months. In response to NFL Media, Stafford’s adjustment included a $23.5 million assured wage in 2024, a $12.5 million signing bonus and a $4 million assured March roster bonus.

Merely put, the Rams borrowed assured cash from 2025 making it basically a one-year, $40 million deal as Stafford gave up his different 2025 ensures. The Rams and Stafford opted to play out the season after which reasses. Properly, right here we’re reassessing.

Stafford didn’t essentially have his greatest 12 months, however from Weeks 8-14 he ranked ninth amongst quarterbacks in CPOE+EPA composite. He had a middling finish to the 12 months earlier than breaking out as soon as once more within the postseason. When the lights shine brightest, Stafford has proven that’s when he performs his greatest.

The Rams and Stafford Wish to Keep Collectively

The choice on Stafford’s future has nothing to do with whether or not or not both facet needs to stay collectively. As NFL Community’s Tom Pelissero reported, “It certainly sounds as if the priority is for Stafford to return.” ESPN’s Seth Walder additionally reported, “Both sides do want to shake something out, and a lot of other teams I’ve talked to, including teams that need a quarterback, are skeptical that Stafford would leave the Rams.”

Once you add that to ESPN’s Dan Graziano’s report earlier this month of Stafford prone to return to L.A. in 2025 together with Jeremy Fowler reporting “people I’ve talked to with the Rams don’t sound overly concerned about Stafford leaving,” you begin to see an image beginning to be shaped.

So as to add just a little little bit of a cherry on prime, Jordan Schultz of Fox Sports activities reported, “The Rams want him back and there’s been nothing to this point that would suggest Stafford doesn’t want to play for them.”

On the finish of the day, this comes all the way down to cash and whether or not or not the 2 sides can work one thing out. As Albert Breer stated the Wealthy Eisen Present on Monday, “I don’t think he wants to leave Southern California. I think he really likes playing for McVay. This is about the contract.”

Stafford’s present common per 12 months is $40 million. A severe argument will be made that he ought to be making greater than Kyler Murray and Deshaun Watson and doubtlessly even Tua Tagovailoa and Trevor Lawrence. The query turns into are the Rams prepared to pay Stafford that a lot and, if that’s the case, can the 2 sides agree on a contract construction.

Quarterback Contracts

Over The Cap

Matthew Stafford was not granted permission to hunt a commerce

Pelissero’s report final week acquired twisted in a method that made it sound as if the Rams had given Stafford permission to hunt a commerce. As Pelissero reported, “They’ve also given his agent permission to speak to other teams and just figure out if he became available, what would the numbers be elsewhere?”

The best way that Pelissero put it was good in that the Rams basically legalized tampering. They’ve allowed Stafford’s agent to exit and see what he might get from different groups. Clearly a commerce isn’t going to occur and not using a new contract anyway. That is how the Rams have tended to deal with free brokers and their participant’s values. The Rams have allowed them to hit the open market which permits them to speak to different groups. and discover their worth. From there, the group can determine on whether or not or not they’ll match it or present an ultimatum.

Permitting Stafford’s agent to speak to different groups kills two birds with one stone. It permits the Rams and Stafford to seek out his worth and if the state of affairs will get to the purpose of a commerce, the skeleton of a contract is already in place.

A great way to consider it was how the Baltimore Ravens dealt with the Lamar Jackson contract in 2023. The Ravens positioned the non-exclusive franchise tag on Jackson. This allowed Jackson and his agent to talk to different groups. On the identical time, had a group supplied Jackson a contract, the Ravens would have had time to match it. In the event that they hadn’t, they’d have obtained two first spherical picks.

Now, the Rams aren’t going to obtain two first spherical picks for Stafford, however the identical idea applies right here. Stafford will have the ability to discuss to different groups on what a contract might appear like. The Rams can then match that or get draft capital in return.

Can the Rams afford a Matthew Stafford extension?

There appears to be a false impression in terms of quarterbacks and huge contracts. It’s straightforward to have a look at the contracts the the Dolphins handed Tua or the Jaguars handed Lawrence and say these are dangerous contracts holding their groups again. Nonetheless, simply because these contracts didn’t work out doesn’t imply paying quarterbacks is a nasty factor.

If a group goes to pay one participant almost 20 % of the general wage cap, that participant must be price it. Because it stands based on Schrager, “He wants to be paid more than $50 million … There are teams willing to pay him more than the Rams are currently.”

To place it merely, entrance places of work must have some self-awareness and pay the precise participant at proper time. It’s straightforward to have a look at the massive quarterback contracts just like the Dolphins and Tua and notice that they contract might be hurting their group. Ought to the Dallas Cowboys have paid Dak Prescott $60 million with their roster on a downward pattern? Most likely not. The Dolphins offense has carried out higher with Tua, however might they get comparable manufacturing from one other beginning degree quarterback? Was Trevor Lawrence ok to warrant his contract?

If a group drafts properly, they profit from rookie contracts. That’s the place the Rams are at. They’ve a possibility subsequent two years to benefit from Puka Nacua, Jared Verse, and Braden Fiske all being on a rookie deal earlier than transferring to doubtlessly having profit of 5 extra years of a rookie quarterback contract. In different phrases, they’ve spending flexibility.

Rams Future Cap Area

Over The Cap

It’s the anti-rookie quarterback contract. For those who pay a quarterback some huge cash, it provides stress to draft expertise round them. Contrarily, with a rookie quarterback, there may be flexibility to spend cash on confirmed gamers so as to add the expertise. It’s two alternative ways of roster constructing and the Rams have drafted properly. There’s motive to consider that they need to attempt to capitalize on that.

An enormous good thing about Rams having guys like Verse, Nacua, Fiske, and so forth. is that top-end playmakers are on rookie contracts and also you don’t have $30 million tied into one participant on the sting. Brian Burns of the New York Giants is making for $29.75 million in 2025 whereas Verse is about to make $3.4 million. Once more, it’s the anti-rookie quarterback contract profit.

The Rams aren’t sitting on the sting of being in hassle from a wage cap perspective. That is why they went via among the wage cap pains of 2023. There aren’t any large contracts tied into future years.

Because it stands, Stafford is counting for $49.6 million towards the cap. In a lower than thrilling free agent class and $44 million in cap area with potential for extra, there may be room for an additional $4 million or $5 million to dish out to Stafford together with ensures.

Why ought to the Rams prolong Matthew Stafford

The reply right here appears fairly easy. When Stafford is at his greatest, he’s among the many upper-echelon of quarterbacks within the NFL. That was confirmed final 12 months in each wins towards the Minnesota Vikings and the win towards the Buffalo Payments. If the Rams need to compete for a Tremendous Bowl, Stafford provides them one of the best probability to try this. At 37 years previous, he nonetheless has the power to win outdoors of the system when the system is flawed.

By extending Stafford, the Rams are in a position to proceed transferring ahead with one foot on either side of the “now” or “future” line. Stafford permits the Rams to compete and push for a Tremendous Bowl. On the identical time, Stafford doesn’t restrict them in with the ability to draft a quarterback subsequent 12 months and in addition be that bridge.

It merely doesn’t make sense for the Rams to pay one other quarterback like Sam Darnold or attempt to compete with a quarterback like Aaron Rodgers after they can do each with Stafford below heart in 2025.

Why shouldn’t the Rams prolong Matthew Stafford

On a floor degree, it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense for the Rams and Stafford to not transfer ahead collectively. Nonetheless, it’s been stated a number of instances by a number of analysts that the Rams do have this youthful core of gamers. Sean McVay stated it himself on the Fitz & Whit Podcast. Mentioned McVay,

“There’s no discrepancy on us wanting him to proceed to prepared the ground and be our quarterback. The fascinating and the difficult dilemma and dynamics inside this are, ‘Hey, how do you continuously as a head coach look at the short term and the long term and be able to figure out what does that really look like?’

Breer expanded on this as properly on the Wealthy Eisen Present. The Rams have this youthful core of gamers of Puka Nacua, Jared Verse, Braden Fiske, and so forth. In some unspecified time in the future, the Rams are going to have to leap head first into that pool. It’s actually solely a matter of after they determine to do it. Their younger playmakers are their core id transferring ahead. It’s why the Rams are okay transferring on from Cooper Kupp.

There isn’t a powerful historical past of quarterbacks taking part in late into their 30s. The exception right here is Brady and it’s onerous to make that the expectation. Stafford’s play was extra inconsistent than spectacular down the stretch final 12 months. Gamers ought to receives a commission for his or her future worth and never essentially previous efficiency. Are the Rams projecting the strong and never spectacular Stafford to grow to be the norm?

Whereas the Rams might ask for a primary spherical choose, it’s not essentially doubtless they’d get it. Nonetheless, they can get some draft capital for 2026 that might put them in place to get one of many prime quarterbacks in subsequent 12 months’s class. The Rams can deal with constructing an eco-system that advantages a rookie quarterback.

What’s Subsequent

This case is absolutely going to boil all the way down to what the conversations are like this week on the Mix. The Athletic’s Jourdan Rodrigue reported, “Stafford’s agent, Jimmy Sexton, is among those the team expects to meet with, league sources said.” Jordan Schultz of Fox Sports activities additionally reported that the Rams and Stafford’s agent are planning to fulfill in Indianapolis to see if they’ll discover frequent floor.

How these conversations play out could have an enormous position in Stafford’s future with the group. The Rams want to get this completed sooner quite than later. It’s not going to be one thing that bleeds into coaching camp like final 12 months.

If the Rams can’t get a deal completed, the main target then turns to buying and selling him. The Giants solely have $48 million and would wish to discover a method to tackle an enormous Stafford contract. On the identical time, the Rams would in all probability wish to get Stafford within the AFC. The group that makes probably the most sense right here could be the Las Vegas Raiders. That’s the group to look at right here.

The Raiders might use Stafford as their bridge as they appear to re-build their tradition. With Tom Brady as a part of the possession group, the Raiders are going to need to get the quarterback place proper and Stafford suits their instant timeline.

Within the case that the Rams are in a position to get a deal completed with Stafford, a contract extension would doubtless be introduced over the following few weeks.