All the pieces the Bucs have been constructing in recent times hinges on what occurs this fall.
On paper, the Bucs as soon as once more have essentially the most gifted roster within the NFC South. That’s the reason lacking the playoffs for a second straight yr would symbolize a large disappointment. Even when they make the postseason, annual appearances lose their luster when all they result in is a first-round exit. The choice is tearing it all the way down to the studs, however one other decade of darkness isn’t what anybody desires to expertise once more.
So, how may issues play out this season?
What could be the best- and worst-case outcomes? That’s one thing CBS’ Sports activities Tyler Sullivan lately analyzed for every NFL crew simply over two months away from the common season kicking off.
The Finest-Case State of affairs For The Bucs Is Not Far Fetched, At All
Trying on the Bucs with a glass-half full strategy, Tyler Sullivan detailed how good the crew has an opportunity to be. It’ll require speedy contributions from Tampa Bay’s rookie class and significant manufacturing from its free agent additions.
Bucs edge Rueben Bain Jr., GM Jason Licht and HC Todd Bowles – Picture by: Cliff Welch P/R
Whereas Sullivan offers some evaluation right here, Pewter Report dived even additional into the subject when defining what underachieving, attaining, and overachieving might appear to be for the crew in 2026. None of Sullivan’s projections really feel far-fetched.
Whatever the headlines surrounding quarterback Baker Mayfield’s future, the current has sufficient questions of its personal. It helps the offense’s prospects that the unit added offensive coordinator Zac Robinson. Robinson’s familiarity with Mayfield, mixed along with his expertise maximizing playmakers in Atlanta, ought to assist Tampa Bay get essentially the most out of its offense.
Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Picture by: Cliff Welch/PR
Tampa Bay’s younger core is stuffed with gamers able to show they’re key items to construct round for the long run. That features Egbuka placing collectively a full yr of high-end manufacturing, choosing up from the place he left off throughout an electrical first half final season. Bain and Trotter is likely to be rookies, however every challenge to be a starter at a essential level of weak spot for the protection in recent times.
If everybody listed – and a number of other others – take a step ahead, Tampa Bay’s ceiling is even greater than Sullivan outlines.
Assembly expectations could be attending to 10 wins and making the playoffs, however essentially the most favorable final result is eclipsing the 10-win threshold and profitable a playoff recreation. As at present constructed, Tampa Bay nonetheless has floor to make up on a number of of the NFC’s high contenders, together with the Rams, 49ers, Packers and Seahawks. That retains them from taking on the convention proper now, however they will start vying for it once more if they will get again on a constructive trajectory.
If Bucs Backside Out, There Will Be Vital Modifications And Onerous Choices
There’s a motive why the Bucs will not be being considered by means of a totally optimistic lens. What occurred from final November to this January was a brutal, two-month span in Tampa Bay. Everybody remembers the 2-6 end. It was not simply that Tampa Bay misplaced; it was the way it misplaced.
Dropping 4 consecutive video games that have been very winnable put head coach Todd Bowles on the ropes, and either side of the soccer struggled. Bowles entered the offseason going through essentially the most scrutiny of his Tampa Bay tenure after a collapse that price the crew each the division and its playoff streak. The aftermath was him having to fireplace a number of tenured defensive coaches and offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard.
A repeat of that might be a worse-case situation for him and everybody else, as Tyler Sullivan particulars.
Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Picture by: Cliff Welch/PR
Worst-case: The second-half struggles from Baker Mayfield (14 touchdowns and 10 interceptions over his remaining 11 video games in 2025) persist in 2026. The younger items the Buccaneers have been hoping would stand up – like Egbuka and Bain Jr. – aren’t prepared for that duty simply but. That permits the remainder of the division to proceed closing the hole, with Atlanta and New Orleans each catching lightning in a bottle of their respective quarterback rooms. For the second straight yr, the Bucs miss the playoffs, placing Todd Bowles’ job firmly in danger.
Mayfield didn’t play the second half of the yr at 100%, as Netflix’s Quarterback season three trailer alluded to. That can make for an fascinating, behind-the-scenes watch, however because the accidents piled up, the “Mayfield Magic” disappeared. One other yr of struggles from the 31-year-old would make his contract negotiations trickier and certain result in the franchise tag being positioned on him for the 2027 season. Though the crew’s promising contributors have extra runway, it could not be signal if none of them emerge as stars.
Bucs WR Emeka Egbuka – Cliff Welch/PR
Though the Falcons, Saints, and Panthers have their very own query marks, all it takes is a type of groups to outplay expectations. Carolina proved that final season by profitable the division with an 8-9 report. Dave Canales’ squad went on so as to add items, and New Orleans has an offense that now has loads of weapons after the 2026 NFL Draft. Atlanta has to work by means of its quarterback competitors, however there’s a motive the video games are performed.
Ought to the Bucs lean nearer to a doomsday situation, that every one however means Bowles could be gone, by some means. Which will imply retirement, or a mutual parting of the way. The 2025 season was the wake-up name, if 2026 is similar story, it’ll have a distinct ending.
Each season is necessary, however 2026 has the makings of a defining yr for Tampa Bay. Whether or not this core will get one other probability collectively or the group charts a brand new route will probably be determined over the following six months.
Watch Our Current Pewter Report Podcast About Bucs’ 2026 Expectations
Not too long ago, Pewter Report mentioned extra about what the Bucs season might appear to be in the event that they underachieve, obtain, and overachieve on expectations. Contemplating this story’s premise, Matt Matera and I analyzed what this yr signifies for the crew. Test it out by clicking this hyperlink or watching it beneath:
