To say that there are excessive expectations for the Houston Texans this season is to understate the plain. After a less-than-satisfying finish to a powerful 2025-26 season, Houston did so much to shore up the crew strengths (re-signing/extending key defensive stalwarts) and spent loads of draft capital/free agent {dollars} to attempt to as soon as in opposition to enhance the offensive line, in addition to including weapons by way of commerce (David Montgomery). Houston will look to not solely reclaim the AFC South Division title however to lastly breakthrough the Division Spherical ceiling.
There’s loads of motive for optimism. Nevertheless, any Houston fan is aware of all too nicely that the negatives can simply come to the forefront. Promise and strain can generally be an excessive amount of. With that in thoughts, listed below are some pre-mortem causes ought to Houston’s season fails to stay as much as its hopes and desires.
FOXBOROUGH, MASSACHUSETTS – JANUARY 18: C.J. Stroud #7 of the Houston Texans reacts after a run in opposition to the New England Patriots throughout the second quarter within the AFC Divisional Playoff sport at Gillette Stadium on January 18, 2026 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Picture by Adam Glanzman/Getty Photos) Getty Photos
The autumn of CJ Stroud: No Texan entered the offseason going through extra questions on his future than QB CJ Stroud. After a rookie season for the ages, Stroud has spent the final two seasons struggling to stay as much as that opening act. It isn’t as if he has been horrible, with playoff wins in every of his three seasons. It is usually not as if it’s all on him, because the crew has struggled mightily to supply a constantly strong offensive line, leaving him with one of many worst run video games within the league and underneath a major quantity of duress. Nevertheless, if the adage “you are only as good as your last performance” is a fact, then Stroud left the world with the worst model of himself. That 4 INT efficiency in New England probably prevented him from signing a giant contract extension. The crew has not sat idly by, revamping the offensive line and bringing in higher operating again expertise in David Montgomery. In concept, enhancements in safety and the operating sport ought to solely assist Stroud and the offense writ giant.
But, what of the psychological? Whereas Stroud’s sack numbers have been down final season, his strain fee was nonetheless among the many worst within the league. Additionally, he had arguably two of his worst ever QB video games within the two playoff sport in Pittsburgh and New England. The season might begin out nicely, however what occurs after that first dangerous play? The primary INT? Can he nonetheless shake it off and extra ahead, or will the negativity construct on itself? If it does, and Stroud can’t get out of his personal head, then all the strikes the crew made will show null and void. This is able to then begat some very troublesome questions inside Reliant Stadium about the way forward for Stroud and the franchise.
FOXBOROUGH, MASSACHUSETTS – JANUARY 18: Woody Marks #27 of the Houston Texans fumbles the ball after a deal with by Christian Gonzalez #0 of the New England Patriots within the second half throughout an AFC Divisional Playoff sport at Gillette Stadium on January 18, 2026 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Picture by Kathryn Riley/Getty Photos) Getty Photos
The offense doesn’t assist Stroud in any respect: There’s at all times the likelihood that the offseason offensive improve are usually not, in reality, upgrades. Branden Smith and Wyatt Teller, in concept, are superior OLs to the boys they changed. Nevertheless, Smith is overcoming some important accidents and Teller is just not the identical guard he was a few seasons in the past. Ed Ingram arguably earned his extension, however what if his efficiency was a fluke? Additionally, the entire offensive line, even with Ingram and Ersary, was not all that nice. Moreover, at the same time as Caley did enhance considerably as a play-caller, he was removed from good in his play-calls, and the offensive line teaching and efficiency might not fully enhance.
The operating sport can be tied into the Oline efficiency, however even then, the RBs are not any certain guess. Montgomery must be a powerful starter, however it’s telling that Detroit let him go, as he had fallen behind Gibbs on the depth chart. What if Detroit dumped broken items on Houston? Marks showcased toughness most didn’t assume he had, however he didn’t make it by means of loads of video games unscathed. Marks works higher as a third-down/change-of-pace again. He might shut out video games, however he doesn’t profile as a again that may try this sport in and sport out for an extended stretch of time. Possibly 2025-26 is completely different with a wholesome Joe Mixon, however the crew actually wants Montgomery to be the very best model of himself.
HOUSTON, TX – NOVEMBER 10: Houston Texans defensive finish Will Anderson Jr. (51) leaves the sector with an damage throughout the NFL sport between the Detroit Lions and Houston Texans on November 10, 2024 at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. (Picture by Leslie Plaza Johnson/Icon Sportswire by way of Getty Photos) Icon Sportswire by way of Getty Photos
The damage gods declare key defenders: Final season, Houston had arguably the very best protection within the league. Their DE duo (Anderson and Hunter) terrorized QBs to no finish, and the secondary of Stingley, Lassiter, Bullock and Pitre constituted their very own no-fly zone. Other than expertise, a key motive was an absence of great accidents to the defensive starters. Anderson lastly performed a full common season, having missed video games in his 1st two seasons. Of the primary starters, solely Pitre (3 video games), Lassiter (1) and Al-Shaair (1), missed any video games as a result of damage. Such fortune doesn’t stay fixed. The large motive why Houston’s protection was so dominant was that their greatest gamers, who’re among the many greatest at their respective positions, really performed. Take Anderson, Hunter, Stingley, Lassiter, et al off the sector for a number of video games, and it’s probably that the squad would have seen a large drop off in defensive efficiency. With a lot of Houston’s hopes using on that protection, their stars should keep on the sector. In the event that they endure any important accidents, particularly to the primary stars, that might upend loads of assumptions, making Houston’s quest to maneuver to the convention title sport that rather more troublesome.
HOUSTON, TEXAS – SEPTEMBER 15: Rachaad White #1 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers runs the ball throughout an NFL soccer sport in opposition to the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium on September 15, 2025 in Houston, Texas. (Picture by Logan Bowles/Getty Photos) Getty Photos
One other dangerous begin to the 12 months. Final season, Houston bought off to an 0-3 begin. Whereas outstanding that they went 12-2 to finish the common season, that isn’t one thing the squad can depend on once more. The schedule doesn’t embrace the NFC West, however there are not any shortages of challenges on the calendar. Houston doesn’t precisely ease into the season, for whereas they’ve 3 of their first 4 video games at residence, these residence video games are in opposition to Buffalo, Cincinnati, and Dallas. These video games are winnable, however these groups possess among the most harmful offenses within the league. If the protection can’t discover its footing and the offense remains to be enjoying like it’s 2025, then the crew may very well be taking a look at one other dangerous begin. Sure, Houston has bounced again from a 0-3, 1-4 sort begin to get the playoffs, however in a aggressive AFC, that isn’t the trail to long-term success.
The Black Swan: Clearly, we don’t know what it may be. Looking back, it is going to be apparent, however proper now, it’s laborious to foretell the place the Black Swan occasion would possibly hit, if it hits in any respect. Earlier variations for this crew concerned every thing from accidents from [KITTEN] to sudden participant authorized woes to a pandemic to an over-his-head-not-good-with-power-football-Ayatollah-wannabe. Nevertheless, one can’t low cost a “Black Swan” incidence.
Might a season with excessive expectations disintegrate ala 2013? At all times potential. This isn’t all-inclusive, nor a prediction of what is going to occur. Nevertheless, if a number of situations introduced right here occur, success may not be part of the upcoming Texans’ season.
