Packers @ Vikings: Matchup and Stakes

Each the Minnesota Vikings and the Inexperienced Bay Packers have earned a spot within the NFC postseason match, so from that perspective there isn’t a lot at stake when the 2 groups take the sector on Sunday afternoon.

However each groups have identified they have been playoff certain for a couple of month, as they’ve compiled two of one of the best data within the NFC and are specializing in different facets of competing for a Tremendous Bowl this season.

For every crew, there are some issues they’d prefer to verify off their record in preparation for the postseason and will help place them for fulfillment as soon as the playoffs start. Listed here are among the stakes for each groups:

Inexperienced Bay Packers

The Packers have been eradicated from the competitors for the NFC North division crown, regardless of going 11-4 thus far, given the Vikings and Lions are each 13-2 with two video games to play and a type of two groups will solely lose yet one more recreation at most given they play one another week 18.

However for the Packers, they’ve but to point out they will beat a high tier crew. Their 4 losses come towards the Lions (twice), Vikings, and Eagles. They’ve crushed depleted Rams and Texans groups which can be prone to make the playoffs, however that’s it. So for the Packers, a chance to beat a high tier crew within the Vikings- their final of the common season- would increase their confidence heading into the postseason.

Sunday’s matchup will even go a good distance in figuring out the Packers seed within the playoffs. In the event that they win, they’ll virtually actually hold the sixth seed, which is the place they land at present, with an opportunity on the fifth seed if the Vikings lose to the Lions. But when they lose, they’ll seemingly be bumped right down to the seventh seed if the Commanders are capable of beat the Falcons and Cowboys to finish their season (they’re favored in each video games) because the Commanders maintain the tie-breaker over the Packers in the event that they beat the Bears as anticipated to finish their season.

A seventh seed for the Packers means touring to Philadelphia for a wild card matchup whereas a sixth seed means touring to LA or Tampa.

Minnesota Vikings

For the Vikings, they should win this recreation to maintain their likelihood alive to win each the NFC North crown, the primary seed within the playoffs, a first-round bye week, and residential subject benefit all through the NFC playoffs. Beating the Packers would additionally give them some added confidence going into the ultimate recreation of the common season at Detroit.

If the Vikings beat the Packers, nonetheless, the Lions will play a meaningless recreation towards the 49ers on Monday night time. It’s rendered meaningless because it gained’t matter if the Lions win or lose that recreation as a result of the Vikings-Lions week 18 matchup will nonetheless be for the division title and first seed, given the tiebreakers concerned, together with with the Eagles. The loser on this situation would turn out to be the fifth seed.

If the Vikings lose to the Packers, their week 18 matchup towards the Lions can be largely meaningless if the Lions beat the 49ers on Monday night time. They’d nonetheless be enjoying to maintain the fifth seed, assuming the Packers beat the Bears week 18, moderately than changing into the sixth seed in the event that they misplaced to the Lions. Nonetheless, on this situation the week 18 matchup between the Lions and Vikings can be meaningless to the Lions, who would’ve wrapped up the division title and first seed after week 17 and due to this fact could not play their key starters.

The Matchup

Within the two significant video games the Vikings have performed towards the Packers and Jordan Love, Love has had passer scores of 72.1 and 83.0. The one meaningless recreation being the late one final season when the Vikings had nothing to play for, realistically. The Vikings gained each significant video games and each have been at Inexperienced Bay.

Within the week 4 matchup at Inexperienced Bay, which the Vikings went up 28-0 earlier than ultimately prevailing 31-28, the Vikings have been with out starters Ivan Tempo Jr. and T.J. Hockenson. Ed Ingram was beginning at proper guard as a substitute of Dalton Risner. The Vikings are prone to play each Tempo and Hockenson on Sunday, however Cam Robinson as a substitute of Christian Darrisaw in week 4, whereas the Packers are prone to be enjoying the identical starters as week 4 however might presumably be lacking one or two further starters. The most important plus for the Packers is that Jordan Love has totally recovered from his knee harm and are available into the sport with some momentum, having blown out the Seahawks and Saints of their final two video games.

PFF Projected Matchups

There aren’t any obtrusive personnel mismatches on the market however anticipate the Packers to place their greatest go rusher- Rashan Gary towards Cam Robinson many of the recreation. The Vikings may benefit from a depleted Packers’ secondary.

NextGenStats Matchup Benefits

Under are the matchup benefits compiled by NextGenStats. Usually, the defenses have many of the benefits in each passing and speeding classes.

Key Stat Comparability

The Vikings maintain a slight benefit in most of those key stats, besides yards per play on each offense and protection, and factors per play on offense.

The Packers are one of many few groups within the league which have run extra usually than they’ve handed, though within the week 4 matchup they handed 79% of the time, given their giant deficit to begin the sport.

The Vikings have the benefit within the situational stats- third down and the purple zone- on each side of the ball and completion proportion on each side of the ball.

Keys to the Sport

For the Packers, getting off to a quick begin is vital as it would allow them to work their working recreation with Josh Jacobs, who’s the Justin Jefferson of their offense. The Packers like to feed him within the floor recreation and he’s additionally been a frequent goal of their go recreation too.

Defensively, the Packers want to have the ability to strain Darnold with simply 4 rushers, given how nicely Darnold has carried out towards the blitz and in a clear pocket. They’ll want their depleted secondary to step up towards the hardest set of offensive weapons they’ve confronted this season in Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson.

For the Vikings, stopping the run is key- which they’ve been one of the best within the league in doing in EPA phrases. That can enable the Vikings to strain Jordan Love on passing downs, when he’s quite a bit much less efficient when beneath strain and one of many decrease PFF-graded starters when going through a blitz.

Turnovers will, as all the time, be a key issue. The week 4 matchup featured seven complete turnovers- 4 by the Packers and three by the Vikings. One of many Vikings’ turnovers occurred on particular groups when Jalen Nailor muffed a punt that became a Packers’ landing. Sam Darnold suffered a choose and a strip sack as nicely. For the Packers, Jordan Love had three interceptions and TE Tucker Kraft additionally misplaced a fumble. Which crew is ready to do a greater job cleansing up these errors will even have a bonus.

The Vikings will even have the house subject benefit in Sunday’s matchup, the place they’ve misplaced solely to the Lions this season. The Packers are 5-2 on the highway this season, having crushed the Titans, the Rams crew with out WRs Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, Jacksonville, Chicago, and Seattle with out Geno Smith within the second half.

Backside Line

The Vikings are one-point favorites on offshore sports activities betting websites whereas the Packers are one-point favorites on home websites, presumably attributable to the place sports activities betting is authorized and the place it isn’t (it’s authorized in Wisconsin however not in Minnesota), which might affect these numbers. The over/beneath is 48 and the moneyline odds are almost similar. All that means an in depth recreation. The Vikings are 8-1 in shut video games and the Packers are 5-3.

The Vikings are additionally 5-2 towards the unfold at house, whereas the Packers are 4-3 towards the unfold on the highway this season.