After trying on the first and second quarters of Emeka Egbuka’s rookie season, the again half of the season is the place his manufacturing actually cratered. We left off after week eight, which led into the Bucs’ bye week. Q3 represents a five-game pattern from weeks 10-14.
The 2 lively questions I had popping out of the second quarter:
Can he beat press protection? This will get answered loud and clear throughout this a part of the season.
Can he enhance his ending? Contact catches and stopping drops are key for a first-round receiver to reside as much as his draft billing. Can Egbuka meet that expectation?
Emeka Egbuka’s Q3 Per Sport Manufacturing
I discover it helpful to border his play inside a manufacturing context. Right here is Emeka Egbuka’s per recreation efficiency for every of the three quarters:
Weeks 1-4 per recreation manufacturing – 7.75 targets, 4.5 receptions, 70.5 yards, 1 TD
Weeks 5-8 per recreation manufacturing – 7.5 targets, 4.0 receptions, 70.0 yards, 0.25 TD
Weeks 10-14 per recreation manufacturing – 9.4 targets, 4.0 receptions, 48.8 yards, 0.2 TD
With Mike Evans absent from the lineup, the Bucs had been attempting to interchange him with Egbuka as a lot as they might. His goal share went up, nevertheless it didn’t translate into further manufacturing. In reality, his catch price cratered, his receptions per recreation remained fixed and his yards per catch decreased considerably. And the early season scoring frequency all however disappeared.
This creates a speculation for the second query — his ending didn’t enhance as his catch price was lower than 50% for this stretch. However that must be verified. If his targets had been uncatchable balls, that’s not on him.
This additionally introduces an necessary third query. In Q1 his yards per catch was 15.7 and in Q2 it rose to 17.5. This was primarily fueled by him profitable downfield. At 12.2 yards per catch in Q3, the query is — how did the downfield alternatives dry up?
Emeka Egbuka’s Struggles Towards Gameplans Designed For Him
Throughout this stretch, Emeka Egbuka confronted a myriad of approaches to restrict his influence. And for essentially the most half all of them labored. However by far the simplest was press protection. Egbuka confronted a powerful collection of press-man corners who successfully shut him out in with press protection. Christian Gonzalez, Tre’Davious White, Will Johnson, Kool-Help McKinstry, and Alontae Taylor, amongst others, held Egbuka to only one catch for eight yards over 5 video games once they jammed him on the line.
Bucs WR Emeka Egbuka – Photograph by: Cliff Welch/PR
He struggled to detach from the jams, typically creating subsequent to no separation and successfully taking himself out of the play as an possibility. When he was focused on these reps his catch price was 14%. So long as defenses have a nook able to jamming, it appears to be like like an efficient type of containment for the younger Bucs receiver.
This solutions one of many greatest operating questions. It additionally reveals a limitation to his recreation that, until he fixes going ahead, will cap him as a receiver. Egbuka’s finest function is as an F or Z receiver. The Bucs had been pressured to mis-cast him as an X in 2025 due to Evans’ absence. This put him in place to face extra press protection which hindered his influence. There is no such thing as a motive he can’t be a weapon in his extra tailor-made roles, nevertheless it does present that if the staff wants a press-man winner they should look elsewhere.
Former offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard realized this in actual time final 12 months. As Q3 of the season progressed, he would comply with up a rep the place Egbuka was pressed along with his subsequent route coming off snap-motion to forestall him from having to contest a line jam. And that is key for Egbuka going ahead. Extra movement, much less press.
Alternatively, when defenses switched to zone protection, they typically used brackets to restrict Egbuka’s manufacturing. Inserting a security excessive killed his capacity to win downfield. Through the first 4 video games of the season, 29% of his targets went past 20 air yards. That fell to fifteen% from weeks 5-8. And now within the third quarter of the season, that price bottoms out to 4% — simply two complete deep targets in 5 video games.
Discovering His Intermediate Footing
The primary quarter of the season was such an enigma for ‘Mek. Tons of deep targets and wins. However the space of the sector he dominated at Ohio State was curiously absent. He had simply three intermediate catches for 30 yards. However he began to regain his intermediate wins post-bye. The dig route was a specific winner for him as he caught 67% of his dig targets for 89 yards (36% of his complete yardage for the five-game pattern) whereas averaging 22.3 yards per catch.
He was additionally getting open on crossing patterns, although he was solely focused as soon as. These longer growing in-cuts are the place he’s at his finest and ought to be how new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson tailors his recreation in 2026. Use Chris Godwin Jr., Jalen McMillan or Tez Johnson on a cross from the slot with Egbuka operating a shadow over behind it. These ought to get him open in house for catch and run alternatives. Alternatively, he may run these deep overs with rookie Ted Hurst threatening vertically on a dagger or salem idea which may additionally result in him discovering success.
The Ending
This era of the season noticed a plethora of points conspire to scale back his catch price. I counted 9 targets that he had no actual probability on. However he additionally dropped 4 passes, together with a simple landing. That’s a tough capsule to swallow for a quarterback searching for consistency from his receiver. Finally, I’ve his adjusted catch price simply north of fifty% towards the backdrop of a 42.6% catch price general. Whereas it’s extra encouraging than the uncooked element, it’s nonetheless a far cry from the place a dependable receiver ought to be sitting.
Professional Soccer Focus had him catching simply two of his 5 contested alternatives, which runs opposite to his school scouting report as a sure-handed go catcher who could make the tough grabs.
Bucs WR Emeka Egbuka – Photograph by: Cliff Welch P/R
The Particulars
The 2 different contextual notes I’ve for this era come all the way down to the main points of enjoying receiver. The primary centered on his route operating. His route stems lacked consistency and, at occasions, a sharpness. This confirmed up totally on deep nook and out routes. The stem depth oscillated from 14 to 16 yards.
This can be part of the offense and primarily based off of how defenders performed the route, however my guess is that it was extra an obtuseness to his route operating that must be cleaned up — particularly on out-breaking routes. For what it’s value it occurred a lot much less on the in-cuts, displaying he has a desire for operating people who confirmed up in his manufacturing.
The second was a timing subject with quarterback Baker Mayfield. Particularly on fast growing performs like pace cuts to the sideline or fast seam-busters, Egbuka had an inclination of getting his head round late inflicting the ball to run up on him. This pressured him into extra physique catches which have a decrease probability of being held on to.
The Offense’s Impression On Emeka Egbuka – And His Impression On The Offense
A receiver can solely management a lot. He can not management if, and when, the ball involves him. One different factor that stood out to me had been the variety of routes he did win however was by no means focused. A few of that may be defined by development mechanics. If he wasn’t primary within the development and that receiver was open, Egbuka shouldn’t have been focused. However there was a good variety of occasions the place he may have been focused, however strain — whether or not it’s offensive line pushed, or generally quarterback pushed — prevented the ball from coming his manner.
Whereas he was nonetheless getting a lion’s share of targets, I’d argue a number of the pressured targets he did see had been low high quality and there have been ample different routes that may have been of a lot larger high quality that would have propelled the offense higher. However at this level within the season virtually nothing was engaged on offense, so chalk this up as only one extra subject.
Bucs WR Emeka Egbuka – Photograph by: Cliff Welch/PR
By way of this five-game pattern he continued to indicate he may discover holes in zone protection and current himself as an open goal. The ball simply didn’t all the time discover him when he did.
One different be aware from an offensive scheme perspective was that Grizzard began to weaponize the menace of Egbuka. Two scores throughout this timeframe had been direct outcomes of the protection keying on him and Grizzard utilizing that to get one other participant open for the landing, together with the low redzone flat flip to Tristan Wirfs that may not have occurred if Egbuka had not cleared the world on his slant. Receiver gravity is actual, and Egbuka confirmed the way it will help elevate different gamers.
Questions Headed Into This fall
Now headed into the ultimate 4 weeks of the season, I’m left with the next questions:
How does Mike Evans’ return change his function, routes, defensive changes, utilization and manufacturing?
That is the entire ball recreation. He’s been miscast as an X for a lot of the season. He was crushing early on with Evans within the lineup. Does Evans’ return put him in additional advantageous positions to deliver again the early season wins? Does the deep menace return? How does he fare towards extra zone protection and fewer press man?
Does his ending enhance?
Given the juxtaposition of how his rookie season has gone on this space towards the backdrop of his school profession, it turns into a operating query that I’m not fairly able to shut the door on.
Can he beat man protection towards a lesser caliber of nook?
Most of his man reps by way of the center of the season had been towards opponents’ prime corners. Does he present he can win 1v1 matchups towards the CB2 crop? In that case, it provides a bit extra ceiling to his present projection.
