I’ve a dry-cleaner who loves giving me well being recommendation. Each week, she tells one thing new to attempt, a water quick, linseed oil, all kinds of homeopathic stuff, tai chi strolling, cupping remedy, you get the drift. I all the time nod politely and alter our small discuss to a special subject. The opposite day, she regarded me within the eye and says,
“You’re not doing any of the stuff I’m telling you, right?“
“So, you’re one of those ‘1+1=2’ guys, yeah?“
I cannot deny this. But I now understand that there must be ‘1+1=3’ people or even ‘1+1=4’ folks for whom logic, math, or scientific data plays no role in their lives. I suspect these may be the people who believe in the idea of clutch performance in sports.
I used to reflexively deny the existence of clutch. In fact, clutch, as it is commonly used, runs counter to any and all data-driven arguments. Most statisticians politely turn around and break wind in your direction when you mention clutch to them. I, for one, don’t buy the idea that a player has some kind of athletic superpower that he can simply switch on when needed.
The concept of a ‘clutch gene,’ the idea that certain players possess a repeatable, inherent ability to elevate their baseline skills strictly when the pressure mounts, is largely a statistical mirage. However, the narrative of clutchness is a powerful engine driven by media economics and cultural values.
There is such a thing a “clutch performance”, besides it’s not what most individuals suppose it’s.
What they inform you is a ‘clutch gene’ on tv is sort of all the time the results of tangible, repeatable benefits in bodily preparation, specialised talent units, or schematic manipulation. There are a lot of conditions that may make a participant seem like ‘clutch’ when the truth is he isn’t.
Conditioning: Higher bodily conditioning could will let you carry out at your peak longer than your opponent. This will provide you with a bonus within the fourth quarter and provides the impression of clutch efficiency, when the truth is you’re merely extra constant than your opponent. A quarterback who abruptly finds clear pockets on the finish of the sport isn’t magically ‘wanting it more’ – he could also be benefiting from a fatigued move rush that may not generate stress.
Aggression Metrics: Groups trailing late throw deep downfield much more usually out of necessity, elevating the usual yards per try metric, which is closely weighted within the official NFL passer score method.
Particular end-game expertise: Particular end-game expertise could make a participant excel in late-game conditions with out making him inherently ‘clutch.’ Like a baseball nearer or a quarterback who thrives in a two-minute offense, some athletes are merely higher on the particular calls for of endgame play. Within the NFL, early-game success usually is dependent upon scripted execution, whereas the fourth quarter rewards improvisation and adaptableness. Gamers who excel in that chaos are sometimes praised for ‘finding that extra gear,’ when in actuality they only possess expertise which might be particularly suited to these conditions.
Schematic Superiority (Math Over Magic): For years, the Eagles have been unstoppable on 4th-and-1. Commentators reward Jalen Hurts’ ‘grit’ and ‘will to win.’ In actuality, the tush push is a masterclass in physics and leverage. The Eagles use an elite offensive line, low pad stage, and authorized additional pushers to create an nearly mathematical certainty of gaining one yard. It’s a mechanical cheat code, not some heroic effort. However that’s only one very particular play, schematic superiority extends a lot additional:
The Forestall Protection. Defenses usually shift to gentle forestall coverages late in video games when defending a lead. This surrenders fast, high-percentage beneath completions that naturally inflate a quarterback’s completion share and score.Exploiting the rule guide. The NFL rule guide modifications dramatically within the last two minutes of a half (clock stoppages on out-of-bounds, particular replay assessment guidelines, defensive move interference thresholds). Many so-called clutch performances are literally examples of exploiting the rule guide moderately than extraordinary execution. Elite groups and quarterbacks perceive late-game guidelines and deliberately create conditions, resembling underthrown deep passes that draw defensive move interference, to realize a bonus, even when the end result is later framed as a clutch drive.No-Huddle: Transferring to a high-tempo, no-huddle offense limits complicated defensive substitutions. Elite processors can decipher defensive appears a lot quicker underneath these constraints.
However clutch extends far past the measurable and quantifiable. Listed here are 4 extra examples:
Reputational Clutch: ESPN says a participant is clutch. Due to this fact he’s. Each time he wins it’s as a result of he’s clutch; when he loses, it was dangerous luck. The Choker is the precise reverse. Each time he wins it’s as a result of he obtained fortunate, when he loses it’s as a result of he’s a choker. In 2015, ESPN printed a rating of the “most clutch QBs.” The highest 4 QBs on the time: Cam Newton, Marcus Mariota, Carson Palmer, and Teddy Bridgewater. A decade later, I can solely suppose, “what a preposterous ranking.”
Anti-Clutch: This can be a man who merely performs badly for the primary three quarters after which finds a solution to elevate his recreation to midway regular ranges. ESPN loves this type of man. They used to name him Tim Tebow.
The absence of choking: Gamers who preserve their efficiency regardless of elevated stress will seem like clutch, particularly if their opponent can not preserve his efficiency underneath stress. But all they’re doing is being constant. No supernatural clutchness to be discovered anyplace; nothing for Sam and Dean to analyze.
The Variance Phantasm: As a result of human brains search patterns, we keep in mind the one spectacular crimson zone interception and utterly overlook the 5 occasions that very same participant threw a landing within the crimson zone.
The ‘clutch quarterback’ is just not a formally outlined time period (as a result of clutch doesn’t exist, in fact), however in frequent utilization it refers to a quarterback who makes essential optimistic performs for his staff at key moments and within the tightest conditions. Sometimes, these could be:
Fourth quarter comebacks – This one is mostly related to clutch, and whereas not good, needs to be included in any evaluation.Enchancment within the fourth quarter over the primary three quarters – As talked about above, the fourth quarter is tied to the time period clutch, and the extent of play of a quarterback within the fourth in comparison with the primary three needs to be checked out.Efficiency on third down – How a participant performs on a 3rd down is essential, and is without doubt one of the most pressure-filled conditions within the recreation.Playoff numbers in comparison with common season – This one is essential as a result of every recreation within the playoffs is excessive stress, and enchancment underneath these circumstances is an efficient signal.
All of this in fact assumes that there are quarterbacks who’re in a position to elevate their stage of play in particular conditions. Why they’d select to decrease their efficiency at different occasions is past me in fact, however let’s stroll by means of every level however.
Fourth quarter comebacks (4QC)
When most followers consider clutch, it’s nearly all the time tied to the fourth quarter. Quarterbacks who play properly and win lots of video games within the fourth are generally known as clutch, quarterbacks who don’t are sometimes labeled as chokers.
And usually we get these clutch QBs shoved in our face in varieties like this chart from Foxsports from final yr:
The sort of ‘ranking,’ with none context, could provide you with clicks and eyeballs, however raises extra questions than it supplies solutions: What number of video games did the QB play, and what number of alternatives for a comeback did he have within the first place? We’re right here to reply these questions.
The subsequent chart highlights the highest seven lively QBs with a minimum of 35 begins and with
the very best quantity for fourth quarter comebacks (the up to date Foxsports rating)the variety of 4QCs as a share of complete video games startedthe variety of 4QCs as a share of fourth quarter alternatives (video games the place the QB’s staff was behind by -1 to -7 factors in some unspecified time in the future within the fourth quarter or time beyond regulation).
# of 4QC
4QC in % ofGames performed
4QC in % of4QC Alternatives
Participant
Video games
4QC
Participant
Video games
4QC
4QC%
Participant
4QC Alternatives
4QC
4QC%
Matthew Stafford
239
39
Jordan Love
48
8
17%
Patrick Mahomes
50
20
40%
Kirk Cousins
167
26
Matthew Stafford
239
39
16%
Jordan Love
21
8
38%
Aaron Rodgers
257
25
Bryce Younger
44
7
16%
Jalen Hurts
27
10
37%
Andy Dalton
169
25
Patrick Mahomes
126
20
16%
Dak Prescott
52
19
37%
Joe Flacco
201
23
Justin Herbert
95
15
16%
Matthew Stafford
112
39
35%
Patrick Mahomes
126
20
Kirk Cousins
167
26
16%
Jared Goff
53
18
34%
Dak Prescott
139
19
Andy Dalton
169
25
15%
Josh Allen
51
17
33%
The names in every cluster are already fairly instructive: A rating of ‘clutch’ QBs that options each Joe, Kirk, and Andy can’t imply a lot. And actually, in our pattern of 33 QBs with greater than 35 begins, by far the most important determinant of what number of 4QCs a QB has is the variety of video games performed. Right here’s a graphic visualizing that:
By and enormous, 4QCs are a operate of video games performed. An R² of 0.85 means 85% of the fourth quarter comebacks are immediately defined by the variety of video games performed. As such, absolutely the variety of 4QCs (and the associated 4QCs as a % of complete video games) is completely ineffective.
Far more fascinating is the proper facet of the desk above, which reveals 4QCs as a share of 4QC alternatives. For one factor, it feels prefer it has the ‘right’ names on the prime, and secondly, it feels intuitively appropriate: you possibly can solely stage a fourth quarter comeback if you end up truly behind within the fourth quarter, proper?
Right here’s the complete checklist of all at present lively QBs, with a separate part for QBs with fewer than two seasons price of begins just because their numbers are inclined to fluctuate loads early on and have a tendency to cool down as soon as they play extra video games.
4th Quarter Comebacks
Participant
Video games
4QC Alternatives
4QC
4QC in % 4Q Alternatives
Patrick Mahomes
126
50
20
40%
Jordan Love
48
21
8
38%
Jalen Hurts
82
27
10
37%
Dak Prescott
139
52
19
37%
Matthew Stafford
239
112
39
35%
Jared Goff
151
53
18
34%
Josh Allen
127
51
17
33%
Tua Tagovailoa
76
27
9
33%
Kirk Cousins
167
79
26
33%
Andy Dalton
169
76
25
33%
Justin Herbert
95
49
15
31%
Carson Wentz
99
43
13
30%
Lamar Jackson
107
37
11
30%
Marcus Mariota
82
41
12
29%
Bryce Younger
44
24
7
29%
Brock Purdy
45
14
4
29%
Deshaun Watson
72
32
9
28%
Baker Mayfield
120
50
14
28%
Geno Smith
98
47
13
28%
Aaron Rodgers
257
91
25
27%
Kyler Murray
87
42
11
26%
Joe Flacco
201
89
23
26%
Daniel Jones
82
39
10
26%
Trevor Lawrence
77
33
8
24%
Sam Darnold
90
34
8
24%
Teddy Bridgewater
65
22
5
23%
Jameis Winston
89
50
10
20%
Joe Burrow
77
30
6
20%
Mitchell Trubisky
57
26
5
19%
Mac Jones
57
26
4
15%
Jacoby Brissett
65
34
5
15%
C.J. Stroud
46
16
2
13%
Justin Fields
53
25
3
12%
Gamers with < 35 begins
Jayden Daniels
24
7
4
57%
Bo Nix
34
15
8
53%
Caleb Williams
34
19
8
42%
Tyler Shough
9
5
2
40%
Shedeur Sanders
7
4
1
25%
J.J. McCarthy
10
3
1
33%
Cam Ward
17
5
1
20%
Drake Maye
29
9
1
11%
Jaxson Dart
12
3
0
0%
Michael Penix
12
6
0
0%
Fourth quarter enchancment
In soccer analytics, Anticipated Factors Added (EPA) is the holy grail metric. It measures how a lot worth a quarterback provides to his staff’s scoring chance on each single play, which is why we’ll take a look at EPA per play on this part. On common, an elite NFL quarterback produces round +0.20 to +0.30 EPA per play, maintain this in thoughts as we stroll by means of the numbers.
RBSDM.com is a wonderful useful resource for simply the sort of evaluation, they usually even present ready-to-publish charts to take a look at. Right here’s the primary chart that covers the 1st-Third quarter solely from 2021-2025. As you possibly can see on the prime of the chart, I’ve set just a few different filters as properly (min 1,000 performs, lively QBs solely, common season solely) that give us 30 quarterbacks.
For those who take a look at the highest proper quadrant, you’ll see a few of the finest QBs within the league at present, and you might or will not be shocked that exterior of Matthew Stafford, all six of the most effective 4QC quarterbacks are within the prime proper nook and above the road: Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Jordan Love, Dak Prescott, Jared Goff, and Josh Allen. However will their efficiency maintain up within the fourth quarter?
Right here’s the fourth quarter chart with one essential extra filter: The Win Likelihood Threshold is ready at 20%, which excludes performs the place one staff has lower than a 20% or greater than 80% likelihood to win, which filters out “garbage time” – lopsided, late-game conditions the place play-calling and Anticipated Factors Added (EPA) change into closely skewed. The 20% threshold is primarily used to judge quarterback or play-caller execution in aggressive, neutral-leverage conditions. All different filters may be seen on the prime of the chart.
Matthew Staffords rockets up the chart, Hurts, Prescott, Mahomes and Love are additionally above or near the 0.20 threshold, Herbert stays under 0.20 and Allen drop under the 0.20 line. C.J. Stroud and Joe Burrow soar the shark if you’ll and in addition present up above the 0.20 threshold. All in all, that provides us the next rating of QBs and the way a lot they improved their EPA/Play within the fourth quarter/time beyond regulation.
Quarters 1-3 vs 4th Quarter / OT
QB
Quarters 1-3
4th Quarter / OT
Change
Matthew Stafford
0.13
0.35
0.22
Jayden Daniels
0.10
0.25
0.16
Jalen Hurts
0.14
0.29
0.15
CJ Stroud
0.10
0.24
0.15
Joe Burrow
0.17
0.25
0.08
Geno Smith
0.04
0.11
0.07
Bryce Younger
-0.08
-0.01
0.07
Mac Jones
0.00
0.06
0.05
Dak Prescott
0.18
0.22
0.04
Patrick Mahomes
0.20
0.23
0.02
Kirk Cousins
0.09
0.10
0.01
Sam Darnold
0.10
0.11
0.01
Caleb Williams
0.00
0.01
0.01
Daniel Jones
0.07
0.07
0.00
Aaron Rodgers
0.11
0.11
0.00
Jaxson Dart
0.15
0.15
-0.01
Justin Herbert
0.13
0.12
-0.01
Jordan Love
0.20
0.19
-0.01
Kyler Murray
0.10
0.08
-0.02
Tua Tagovailoa
0.16
0.13
-0.03
Bo Nix
0.08
0.04
-0.04
Jacoby Brissett
0.02
-0.02
-0.04
Justin Fields
0.02
-0.02
-0.05
Lamar Jackson
0.17
0.09
-0.08
Baker Mayfield
0.09
0.00
-0.09
Josh Allen
0.20
0.11
-0.10
Brock Purdy
0.27
0.14
-0.13
Jared Goff
0.16
0.01
-0.14
Trevor Lawrence
0.11
-0.08
-0.19
This chart appears easy sufficient, however isn’t as simple to learn because it appears. For those who’re a fan of the QBs on the prime of the desk, you possibly can rejoice. “Yay, my QB is clutch in the fourth quarter!!!” However what’s the purpose of enhancing within the fourth quarter when, like Bryce Younger, you’re the worst of 29 QBs in quarters 1-3 and ‘improve’ to fourth-worst within the fourth quarter?
You’ll discover that the cells with EPA>0.20 are marked in inexperienced, and also you’ll additionally discover that just one QB has two inexperienced cells to his identify: Patrick Mahomes as soon as once more proves that he’s a planet unto himself. Dak Prescott, Jordan Love, and Joe Burrow narrowly miss out on having two ‘greens’ as properly. Stafford, Jayden Daniels, Jalen Hurts, and C.J. Stroud present sturdy fourth quarter enhancements, and it will be fascinating to grasp what holds them again within the first three quarters, simply because the magnitude of the drop off for Josh Allen, Brock Purdy, and Jared Goff would warrant an additional look.
In any case, Dak Prescott ranks fifth general in EPA within the first three quarters and seventh within the fourth quarter. Not dangerous for a QB many reflexively name un-clutch.
Groups that constantly transfer the sticks on third down have a tendency be the groups that win constantly. It follows that quarterbacks that transfer the sticks constantly on third down are excellent quarterbacks; quarterbacks that fail at this most elementary of soccer duties are normally not excellent.
The only solution to measure a QB’s capacity to maneuver the sticks is so as to add up his passing and speeding first downs and divide them by his variety of move makes an attempt and runs on third down. Which is strictly what you see within the subsequent desk.
Third Down Conversion Share
Participant
Go Att
1D
Rush Att
1D
Third-down %
Brock Purdy
353
172
43
29
50.8%
Patrick Mahomes
1,066
512
126
77
49.4%
Joe Burrow
676
320
68
38
48.1%
Josh Allen
965
415
257
172
48.0%
Dak Prescott
1,121
521
130
71
47.3%
Jalen Hurts
574
235
217
132
46.4%
Justin Herbert
896
390
116
70
45.5%
Jameis Winston
838
373
91
47
45.2%
Aaron Rodgers
2,239
975
226
133
44.9%
Lamar Jackson
714
281
246
141
44.0%
Carson Wentz
892
374
101
60
43.7%
Jordan Love
413
175
35
19
43.3%
High 34 QB Common (42.9%)
Jared Goff
1,302
559
65
28
42.9%
Tua Tagovailoa
616
269
55
19
42.9%
Baker Mayfield
1024
408
145
88
42.4%
Marcus Mariota
684
267
104
67
42.4%
Matthew Stafford
2,297
958
126
64
42.2%
Mitchell Trubisky
519
212
78
39
42.0%
Justin Fields
377
131
140
85
41.8%
C.J. Stroud
424
175
39
18
41.7%
Kirk Cousins
1,581
645
80
47
41.7%
Deshaun Watson
586
234
113
57
41.6%
Daniel Jones
688
274
115
58
41.3%
Trevor Lawrence
641
252
93
50
41.1%
Mac Jones
476
183
68
36
40.3%
Teddy Bridgewater
568
219
85
43
40.1%
Jacoby Brissett
619
235
90
49
40.1%
Geno Smith
838
326
99
49
40.0%
Kyler Murray
707
270
115
57
39.8%
2025 NFL Common (39.5%)
Joe Flacco
2,011
770
138
77
39.4%
Andy Dalton
1,540
593
142
67
39.2%
Sam Darnold
784
293
82
46
39.1%
Bryce Younger
370
118
44
26
34.8%
Gamers with <35 begins
Drake Maye
209
89
30
17
44.4%
Jaxson Dart
95
36
27
17
43.4%
Jayden Daniels
178
66
40
26
42.2%
Bo Nix
341
130
53
33
41.4%
Tyler Shough
84
33
5
3
40.4%
2025 NFL Common (39.5%)
Michael Penix
96
37
6
2
38.2%
Caleb Williams
291
106
48
21
37.5%
Shedeur Sanders
59
21
8
4
37.3%
Cam Ward
143
46
11
6
33.8%
J.J. McCarthy
63
18
10
4
30.1%
The very first thing to grasp right here is that whereas we’re utilizing 3D% as a QB stat, there’s a powerful staff element in right here is properly. With out correct move safety, run blocking on designed run, and and not using a good receiving corps, even the most effective QBs will battle to maneuver the sticks.
And when you’re in search of ‘clutchness’ you’ll discover it on the very prime of this checklist, and also you’ll be comfortable to see that Dak Prescott is correct in that Planet Mahomes tier.
Playoffs versus common season
We’ll use the EPA stats once more for this last train. The chart under reveals the common season EPA/Play for 28 lively QBs.
And we once more have the standard suspects on the prime of the checklist. Planet Mahomes all by himself on the prime and a second tier of EPA QBS with Aaron Rodgers, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Dak Prescott, and Jalen Hurts.
Subsequent up is the playoff EPA, once more with the Win Likelihood Threshold set at 20% to exclude rubbish time.
Most Cowboys followers will take a look at this chart with some stage of concern. How can a QB like Dak Prescott (and Brock Purdy, Jared Goff, or Lamar Jackson) who was near the highest in all of the ‘clutchness’ metrics we checked out beforehand, abruptly expertise such a steep EPA drop within the playoffs? Did they abruptly lose all their talents that made them stand out beforehand? Or is it some staff or teaching difficulty that results in this drop? As a result of Mr. Mahomes doesn’t appear to care whether or not it’s the common or the post-season.
One (partial) purpose may be discovered within the quantity of snaps every QB performed from behind within the playoffs. Dak Prescott, for instance, performed 72% of his playoff snaps from behind, Lamar Jackson is at 63%, Brock Purdy at 58% and Jared Goff at 51%. The chart under, that includes 11 starters with a minimum of 150 playoff snaps, reveals a strong R² of 0.53, which means half of the drop in efficiency is because of the share of snaps performed from behind.
Now, why these guys are taking part in from behind a lot is a completely totally different dialogue.
The opposite level we’ve largely eradicated on this evaluation is rubbish time. And a minimum of for Dak Prescott, that rubbish time is kind of instructive. Right here’s his EPA/Play by Win Likelihood Threshold.
Dak Prescott Profession Playoff EPA/Play
All Performs
5-95percentWin Likelihood
10-90percentWin Likelihood
20-80percentWin Likelihood
Performs
331
250
203
149
EPA/Play
0.16
0.09
0.04
0.02
Prescott’s complete playoff quantity appears okay with a 0.16 EPA/Play, however it decreases the extra ‘garbage time’ you’re taking away. On the finish, if you solely take a look at performs with a win chance of 20-80%, you’re taking away nearly half of Prescott’s complete playoff performs.
Whenever you enable the 2016 Packers to leap out to a 21-3 lead early within the second quarter, or enable the 2018 Rams to take a 20-7 lead into the half, or path the 2021 49ers by 23-7 midway although the third quarter, or have the 2023 Packers go into the half with a 27-7 lead, you’re going to play from behind loads. For Prescott, these 4 video games are the tough equal of two full video games of ‘garbage time.’ So perhaps we’re overshooting right here. Rubbish time was one thing like ‘down by two scores in the fourth quarter with not enough time to score twice’ (or some variation of that) however right here we’re taking about entire second halves as rubbish time.
I’ve indulged the garbage-time argument right here as a result of it’s one which’s often introduced up in discussions about Dak Prescott. But when it’s a sound argument for Prescott, it have to be a sound argument for everybody else as properly, proper?
Would somebody like to inform Tom Brady that almost all of his efficiency in Tremendous Bowl LI towards Atlanta ‘doesn’t depend’ as a result of he was taking part in in rubbish time from the center of the second quarter nearly to the top of the fourth?
One-way arguments that don’t rebound, that can’t be universally utilized, are dangerous arguments.
In any case, the Cowboys, and the Cowboys offense, and Dak Prescott have to play higher and extra constantly in huge video games and the playoffs. That’s one thing you possibly can acknowledge even when you’re an enormous Prescott supporter, simply as detractors can acknowledge that Prescott has principally performed at a very excessive stage during the last ten years.
I’ll depart the final phrases to Prescott’s former head coach, Jason Garrett:
I’m smiling as a result of I like the man. I believe he offers them an opportunity and he’s performed so properly. I do suppose he’s an underappreciated participant. There’s a lot scrutiny in regards to the Cowboys and his place that he’s in, and with that comes lots of feelings.
For those who simply pull again and watch how he’s performed for 10 years now, he’s simply performed at a very excessive stage. And I believe he offers them an opportunity to have success.
The one factor that I believe he would inform you is, in addition to they’ve performed on offense – the numbers had been actually gaudy – I believe he would say, “Hey, we gotta play better in these big games that we need to win.” They should play constantly properly offensively all year long, I believe they’ve an opportunity to try this.
