Previous to the draft there was a whole lot of dialogue concerning the positional worth of a security, and a few of that line of considering might need pushed Caleb Downs out of the highest 5 and into the ready arms of the Dallas Cowboys.
Austin Mock of The Athletic defined the difficulty previous to the draft:
[…] choosing a participant who’s anticipated to realize surplus worth is paramount to roster building. That’s why quarterbacks, offensive tackles and edge rushers are so coveted, and they’re paid accordingly.
Downs is among the safer picks on this draft, as he’s been a top-five prospect for your entire draft cycle and has been top-of-the-line safeties, if not the very best security, in school soccer since he was a real freshman at Alabama. So, that ought to make him a straightforward top-10 — and even top-five — choose, proper?
Not so quick.
As a top-five choose, Downs would make $11.4 million per yr over the following 4 years; at No. 10, he’d make $7.4 million per yr. However the common wage of the NFL’s 5 highest-paid safeties proper now could be $20.9 million, that means that even when Downs hits as a top-end security, he’d be producing solely between $9 million and $13.5 million per yr in surplus worth (the hole between his rookie contract and that top-five common).
Distinction that with, say, edge rusher — the common wage of the present 5 highest-paid gamers at that place is $42.5 million per yr. If a workforce takes Arvell Reese or David Bailey within the high 5, these prospects might create as a lot as $35 million in surplus worth by rising as Professional Bowl-level performers whereas on their rookie contracts.
Downs is undoubtedly the very best security prospect on this class, and he was the very best security in school soccer over the previous three years. It’s fairly attainable he’s a unicorn defender […] and believing Downs actually is a unicorn — a generational expertise at his place — is about the one approach {that a} normal supervisor or head coach can justify pulling the set off on him with a excessive draft choose.
One other side that bought a little bit misplaced within the positional worth dialogue is the query of sturdiness.
A couple of days earlier than the 2016 NFL Draft, when the considered the Cowboys drafting a operating again with a high 5 choose was menacingly taking form, my good good friend rabblerousr defined the three circles that made up his first-round Venn diagram: blue-chip gamers, money-five place, and no non-durable positions. Immediately, that diagram would look one thing like this:
In contrast to rabblerousr, who constructed his diagram below the upcoming menace of the Ezekiel Elliott choose, I included security as a non-durable place in my diagram.
However is the protection place actually extra injury-prone than different positions?
16 years in the past, Brian Burke, then of AdvancedFootballAnalytics and now with ESPN, requested precisely the identical query in a submit titled “Are Safeties risky top picks?” Immediately, we’re going to stroll in his footsteps and comply with his methodology (however with up to date information) to determine if Burke’s reply on the time remains to be the identical right this moment.
To seek out out, we’ll use the info from the 20 drafts between 2000 and 2019, and we’ll take a look at two statistics as proxies for sturdiness: whole video games performed and seasons as their workforce’s main starter, each from ProFootballReference.com. And since we’re PFR information, we’ll add Professional Bowls and weighted Approximate Worth for good measure.
Once I pulled the info, I bumped into a problem that Burke additionally had with the info:
Sadly, PFR doesn’t distinguish defensive backs as both a security or cornerback in its draft information [they only started in 2015]. I categorized every by hand in line with their preliminary place classification throughout their NFL profession. Some cornerbacks finally transition to security later of their careers. Ronnie Lott, Rod Woodson, and Antrel Rolle are prime examples. In these instances, I categorized them as cornerbacks as a result of that was their meant place on the time of their draft.
I used the identical method and manually reclassified 84 first-round defensive backs drafted between 2000 and 2014 simply the best way Burke did.
That led me to the primary comparability, the sturdiness and general worth of first-round cornerbacks versus first-round safeties.
1st Spherical Comparability
Stat
Cornerbacks
Safeties
# Gamers
75
38
Avg Video games Performed
112.0
110.4
Avg Years as Starter
5.5
6.3
Avg Weighted AV
36.5
40.7
Avg Professional Bowls
1.2
1.6
At first look, the outcomes right here mirror Burke’s findings from 2010:
It seems that 1st spherical safeties are not less than as sturdy and precious, if no more so, as their CB counterparts.
The variety of video games performed is remarkably related, the discrepancy in years as starters and common wAV is probably going a results of among the corners right here taking part in as slot corners. Slot corners historically get much less official begins than exterior corners, which impacts each the years as starter and wAV numbers. And the cornerback variety of Professional Bowls might be a results of the Professional Bowl nonetheless ignoring slot corners: In 2025, NFL defenses performed nearly 60% of their defensive snaps in a nickel formation with 5 defensive backs. Typically that fifth participant was a cornerback. So you’ve three corners and two safeties on the sector over half the time, however the Professional Bowl solely has two slots for CBs and two slots for safeties, so there are extra corners competing for a Professional Bowl slot than safeties.
Subsequent, Burke checked out simply the highest 10 general picks in every draft. I expanded that to high 12, as a result of that was the Cowboys’ authentic draft slot this yr.
Prime 12 Picks Comparability
Stat
Cornerbacks
Safeties
# Gamers
21
10
Avg Video games Performed
125.4
113.2
Avg Years as Starter
7.0
6.8
Avg Weighted AV
44.3
48.3
Avg Professional Bowls
2.0
2.6
At first look, safeties appear to play fewer video games and have shorter careers, however preserve their benefit in wAV and Professional Bowls. However as Burke additionally notes in his evaluation, that is the place we run into pattern dimension points, “so these numbers should be taken with a heavy grain of salt.”
And there’s an extra complicating issue contained in the small pattern dimension. Sean Taylor (RIP) was drafted by Washington with the fifth general choose in 2004, however was murdered halfway by means of his fourth NFL season, reducing quick what was trying like a really promising profession that had resulted in two Professional Bowls over 4 years.
If we exclude Taylor from the info above, avg. video games performed for safeties jumps to 119.7 and years as starter surpasses cornerbacks with 7.1.
Which means our findings from the primary desk nonetheless maintain, high 12 safeties are not less than as sturdy and precious, if no more so, as their CB counterparts.
Burke then went on the evaluate safeties to another positions, each for all first-round picks and for simply high 10 general picks. We’ll do the identical, and once more alter for the highest 12 as a substitute of high 10.
Years as Major Starter
Place
1st spherical
Prime 12
CB
5.5
7.0
LB
6.2
6.9
QB
5.9
6.9
S
6.3
7.1*
DE
5.6
6.3
RB
4.7
6.1
WR
4.9
5.9
Total it seems like longevity of safeties is on the high finish of the positions listed, particularly when contemplating the *Sean-Taylor-effect.
The variety of video games performed involves the same conclusion, there isn’t any longevity situation with safeties:
Avg profession video games performed
Place
1st spherical
Prime 10
CB
112.0
125.4
DE
118.3
122.3
LB
114.8
120.5
S
111.9
119.7*
QB
100.1
113.9
RB
97.8
113.2
WR
102.3
111.9
Ultimately, there may be robust proof displaying that high safeties usually are not an even bigger damage threat than high gamers at different positions.
The place worth situation stays. However positional worth is way from being a definitive measurement on worth on the subject of place, even when it makes for fascinating debates. In 2021, Professional Soccer Focus put collectively an intriguing research measuring positional worth primarily specializing in the NFL draft.
They mixed a handful of metrics, beginning with their Wins Above Alternative (WAR) metric, and located that when trying on the high 32 gamers at every place sorted by 2020 WAR, security landed third-highest on the checklist behind QB and CB. This after all runs counter to most of the strongly held beliefs within the NFL neighborhood.
However in a day and age the place defenses characteristic more and more extra nickel, dime, and sometimes even greenback packages versus the standard two-safety seems of previous eras, groups now name upon safeties to be extra versatile.
“The game is changing where you should have a bunch of Swiss-Army knives at the position,” NFL Media/Jaguars analyst Bucky Brooks mentioned.
The worth of excellent security play has undoubtedly elevated over the previous couple of years; possibly their contract worth simply hasn’t caught up but.
